Boston College vs Duke Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Boston College is 4-3 after a statement win on the road, and Duke is 5-2 at Wallace Wade Stadium behind a defense that rarely gives a game away. Mason McKenzie runs Boston College almost by himself, and Duke's balance is built to test whether one player can carry a road game for four quarters.
The Matchup
Mason McKenzie is the entire Boston College problem for a defense to solve. McKenzie has thrown for 1,363 yards and rushed for 614 yards this season, and McKenzie carried 16 times for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns at 10.6 yards per carry in the most recent game while also throwing for 101 yards and 1 touchdown. Javarius Green caught 3 passes for 57 yards in that game, but Green is a complement, not the plan.
Boston College averages 181.0 rushing yards per game and just scored 49 at Georgia Tech, so Duke cannot treat McKenzie as a novelty act. Duke answers with the more reliable structure. Nate Sheppard has carried for 875 yards and 9 touchdowns this season, and Sheppard ran for 55 yards and 1 touchdown in the most recent game.
Walker Eget has thrown for 1,440 yards with 8 touchdowns, and Eget went 14 of 25 for 211 yards in the most recent game. Jonah Burton caught 4 passes for 59 yards in that game and gives Eget a steady target underneath. Duke averages 29.9 points per game with 189.7 rushing yards at 5.3 yards per carry, so Duke can match Boston College on the ground without asking Eget to win a shootout.
Key Factors
Duke's defense is the separator that Boston College's recent scoring hides. Duke allows 16.0 points per game with a plus 13.9 net scoring margin, while Boston College allows 23.6 points per game with a plus 0.8 margin. Duke has also protected the ball far better, with 4 giveaways compared with 10 for Boston College, and Duke quarterbacks have thrown 3 interceptions compared with 7 for Boston College.
In a home game where Duke can run Sheppard and play from ahead, those extra possessions quietly pile up. The counterpoint is McKenzie's ceiling. A quarterback coming off a huge rushing day can break a careful game plan with two long keepers, and Duke has shown it can stall, grinding out a 19-16 win at Virginia where Sheppard was held to 3.7 yards per carry.
If Boston College keeps this close into the fourth quarter and McKenzie keeps the ball on option looks, Duke laying a touchdown gets uncomfortable fast. Duke's path is discipline on the edges and finishing drives, because Duke converts 43.8 percent on third down compared with 37.5 percent for Boston College, and sustained Sheppard drives wear down a defense that spends the rest of the afternoon chasing McKenzie's counterpart.
Editorial pick. Boston College asks McKenzie to be the whole offense on the road, and Duke is built to make that assignment wear down because the Blue Devils tackle well, run the ball with patience, and wait for the mistake that usually comes. Take Duke -7.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 12:00 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | The CW |
| VENUE | Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham |
| SPREAD | Duke -7.5 |
| TOTAL | 48.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Duke -310 |
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