Buffalo Bulls vs Pittsburgh Panthers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Buffalo got 47 of its 65 points from two players and 5 from its bench at Marshall. Pitt played 14 men, assisted on 21 baskets, and got 23 points from a reserve.

The Matchup

Buffalo visits Pittsburgh on Thursday night at the Petersen Events Center, with Pittsburgh an 18.5-point favorite, a total of 151.5, on ACCNX. Pittsburgh finished 13-20 last season, scoring 67.4 points a game and allowing 73.8. Buffalo finished 17-15, scoring 78.6 and allowing 79.8. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Pitt's opener was a showcase for depth. The Panthers beat Rider 95-57 with five double-figure scorers, led by Chase Foster, who scored 23 points off the bench. Jonathan Powell scored 18 and made all six of his field goals from three, Naithan George handed out 8 assists, and A'lahn Sumler added 12 points with 5 assists and no turnovers. Pitt assisted on 21 baskets and shot 54 percent from three.

Buffalo's opener was the opposite shape. The Bulls lost 92-65 at Marshall, with Antoine Lorick III producing a genuine 28 points and 15 rebounds, and Drew Steffe adding 19. Between them they scored 47 of Buffalo's 65 points. The rest of the team managed 7 assists in total, shot 19 percent from three, and got 5 points from the bench.

Key Factors

Creation is the gap. George and Sumler combined for 13 assists against 1 turnover on Monday, and Pitt's ball kept moving until Rider's defense broke. Buffalo's offense stopped when it left Lorick's hands: he scored 28 without a single assist, and the Bulls were outrebounded 41-31. A road team that cannot create for each other cannot keep up when the favorite's second unit is still scoring.

Lorick is Buffalo's one real counterweight. A forward who takes 15 rebounds and scores at three levels can keep an underdog in a game almost by himself, and Pitt's frontcourt, led by Baye Ndongo's 12 points and 6 rebounds in 16 minutes, has size but not much proven depth behind it. If Lorick wins that matchup outright, Buffalo can hang around into the second half.

The counterpoint is Buffalo's shooting bouncing back. The Bulls scored 78.6 points a game last season, and a 19 percent night from three is not their identity. But even a better Buffalo shooting night runs into Pitt's depth: the Panthers played 14 men, their bench outscored Buffalo's entire bench many times over, and home favorites with that kind of rotation pull away late. Lay the points.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.