Butler Bulldogs vs Boise State Broncos Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Butler is 2-0 behind two hot guards, and Boise State is 1-0 behind one enormous afternoon against an overmatched visitor. Sunday at ExtraMile Arena gives both teams their first honest test of the season.

The Matchup

Butler visits Boise State on Sunday afternoon at ExtraMile Arena in Boise, on USA Net, with Boise State a 2.5-point favorite, a total of 156.5, and the Broncos priced at -135 on the moneyline against Butler at +114. Butler is 2-0 out of the Big East Conference and Boise State is 1-0 out of the Mountain West Conference, and both perfect records need their labels read out loud before they mean anything.

Boise State's one game was a 132-53 home rout of West Coast Baptist, a non-Division I visitor that was outclassed from the opening tip. That is why the Broncos show 132.0 points scored and 53.0 allowed through one game, and it is why almost none of that line should be trusted at face value.

The useful evidence inside the rout is structural: Boise State collected 67 rebounds, handed out 27 assists, and got 15 points and 16 rebounds off the bench from Jerquarius Stanback, plus 18 points and 9 rebounds from Dovydas Butka and 17 points from Damari Wheeler-Thomas. Across the full season last year, the Broncos went 20-12, scoring 78.19 points a game and allowing 73.47, a solid program having a normal year.

Butler's evidence is better and still soft. The Bulldogs beat Lafayette 96-60 and Fairleigh Dickinson 99-65, both at Hinkle Fieldhouse, and are scoring 97.5 points a game and allowing 62.5 through two games. Asim Djulovic scored 19 points against Lafayette and then 25 on 10-of-12 shooting against Fairleigh Dickinson.

Jalen Jackson scored 18 and then 16, adding 8 assists in the second win, and Eduardo Klafke paired 13 points and 8 assists in the opener with 16 points and 7 assists in the second game. Across the full season last year Butler went 16-16, scoring 79.38 points a game and allowing 77.53. The guards are real. What they have not done yet is play a road game, or face a frontcourt with Boise State's size.

Key Factors

The glass is the mechanism in this game. Boise State's size is not a one-game mirage in the way its scoring is: Stanback pulled 16 rebounds in 20 minutes, Butka added 9, and the Broncos finished with 67 rebounds as a team.

Butler rebounded well in its own wins, 51 against Lafayette and 41 against Fairleigh Dickinson, but it did that work against Patriot League and NEC frontcourts at home. A visiting team that loses the rebounding battle on the road has to shoot its way out, and Butler's ball security gives Boise State a second path to margin: the Bulldogs turned the ball over 20 times against Lafayette before cleaning it up to 11 against Fairleigh Dickinson, and a loud ExtraMile Arena is exactly where that problem comes back.

The total of 156.5 sits right where last season says it should, since these teams scored 79.38 and 78.19 points a game across the full season last year. A game played at that honest pace, rather than at the cartoon pace of Boise State's opener, is a game decided by half-court defense and second chances, and both of those lean toward the home team with the bigger frontcourt. Boise State also has the deeper scoring bench: Bhan Buom added 16 points in the opener and Julian Bowie scored 14, so the Broncos do not go quiet when the starters sit.

The counterpoint is Butler's backcourt, and it is a serious one. Djulovic has made 15 of his 19 shots this season, Jackson and Klafke are both creating for teammates, and Boise State has not defended a Division I guard yet this year.

If Butler's shooting travels to Boise and Djulovic plays like the best guard in the building, the Bulldogs win this game outright and the Broncos' one-game profile gets exposed for exactly what it is. Boise State's case rests on size and setting rather than proof, and that is worth respecting before laying anything bigger than this short number.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.