BYU vs UCF Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

AP No. 2 BYU is 6-0 after stunning Notre Dame, but the Cougars lay only 6.5 at UCF, whose defense allows 21.7 points per game in a low-total afternoon in Orlando.

01The Matchup

AP No. 2 BYU in the AP Top 25 is the story of the season so far: 6-0, fresh off beating Notre Dame, scoring 33.5 points per game and allowing 15.2. The Cougars win with the ground game and with quarterback Bear Bachmeier's legs as much as his arm. Bachmeier has thrown for 1,257 yards and 9 touchdowns while rushing for 284 yards and 6 scores, and BYU runs for 206.7 yards per game at 5.7 per carry as a team.

UCF is 3-3 at the Bounce House and more balanced than its record: 31.7 points per game scored, 21.7 allowed, 68.2% completions and a defense with 6 interceptions. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins leads a Knights offense that has scored 14 rushing touchdowns. A total of 43.5 says the market expects BYU's defense to drag this into a grind, and grinds are where road favorites of less than a touchdown go to sweat.

02Key Factors

First, BYU's rushing efficiency against UCF's front. The Cougars average 5.7 yards per carry, and if that holds, Bachmeier's dual-threat math breaks a defense down over sixty minutes. UCF's counter is that it allows 21.7 points per game and protects its quarterback well enough to stay on schedule. Second, the letdown spot is impossible to ignore.

BYU just played the biggest game in program memory, beat Notre Dame and jumped to AP No. 2; a cross-country trip to Orlando against a 3-3 team is the classic flat spot, and flat favorites in low-total games give underdogs extra possessions to hang around. Third, Bachmeier's passing is efficient but not explosive at 214.5 team passing yards per game, so BYU rarely buries anyone early. UCF has the defense and the home crowd to turn this into a fourth-quarter game, which is all a +6.5 ticket asks.

03The Pick

Take UCF +6.5. Our numbers project BYU by 1, with a projected score of BYU 22, UCF 21, so this is one of the clearest value spots of the week: an unbeaten AP No. 2 team whose style produces close games, laying nearly a touchdown on the road in a letdown spot. BYU's rushing attack and Bachmeier's legs make the Cougars the rightful favorite, and their 15.2 points allowed per game is an elite number.

But nothing about this offense suggests a comfortable road win, and UCF's defense, allowing 21.7 per game with a balanced offense behind it, is good enough to trade stops all afternoon. The Knights may not pull the upset, but they should be within one score when it ends, with a real chance to win it.

Interested in more college football picks? Read our thoughts on who covers in Boise State vs Washington State.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.