CF Montréal vs New York City FC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS
New York City FC host CF Montréal at Citi Field on Saturday, three points behind ninth-placed Columbus Crew with two matches left in their chase for a wild card place, while CF Montréal arrive bottom of the Eastern Conference with their playoff race long since over.
The Matchup
The gap between these sides shows up most clearly at Montréal's defensive end. New York City FC have scored 29 goals in 16 home matches this season, and CF Montréal have conceded 43 in 16 on the road, winning twice away from home all year and scoring 17 goals in those 16 matches.
The attack that travels to Citi Field is also missing its centrepiece. Prince Owusu, who has scored 15 of Montréal's 36 league goals this season, is out with a lower body injury, and the next man on Montréal's scoring list, Daniel Ríos, has 6. Montréal have scored 2 goals across their last five matches, and Owusu has missed the last three of them.
Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Nicolás Fernández at the centre of New York City FC's attack again after starting in Wednesday's 2-1 win over Atlanta United, with Agustin Ojeda and Hannes Wolf around him and Alonso Martínez leading the line.
New York City FC remain without Maxi Morález, Kai Trewin, Arnau Farnós and Drew Baiera. For Montréal, the expectation is Ríos leading the line again after starting at Charlotte FC on Wednesday, and Owusu is joined on the sidelines by Jalen Neal, Thomas Gillier, Brayan Ceballos and Bode Hidalgo.
Key Factors
Fernández is the difference between these attacks. He has 16 goals and 10 assists this season, more goal contributions than any Montréal player has managed, and Ojeda has added 11 assists from the other side of New York City FC's attack. Montréal's problem is what happens if they fall behind. With Ríos leading a line that has produced so little on the road, they have no reliable way back into a game, and an early home goal at Citi Field turns the afternoon into a chase they are not built for.
The counterpoint is New York City FC's own home record. They have won 5 of their 16 home matches and drawn 5 more, and a side that turns that many home games into stalemates can make a two-goal margin feel a long way away.
Montréal also won the most recent meeting between the clubs, 1-0, and they drew 1-1 at Seattle Sounders FC a fortnight ago in the one recent road game where they kept their shape. If this settles into the level, low-tempo game Montréal want, the wild card pressure sits on the home side, not on the visitors.
Montréal without Prince Owusu have lost their one reliable route to goal, and a defence that leaks this freely on the road gives a home side every chance to build a margin. Nicolás Fernández has been New York City FC's best attacker all season, and a team chasing a wild card place at home should press that advantage from the first whistle.
The danger is a level game, because New York City FC draw too many at home, and a one-goal win loses half the stake on this line rather than paying it. That danger is real, but it is the visitors' weakness, not the hosts' caution, that should decide this one. Take New York City FC -1.25 at -115.
Game Information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 1:00 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | Apple TV |
| VENUE | Citi Field, New York |
| COMPETITION | MLS |
| ROUND | MLS Regular Season |
| SPREAD | New York City FC -1.25 (-115) |
| TOTAL | 3 (Over -118 · Under -103) |
| MONEYLINE | New York City FC -247 / Draw +396 / CF Montréal +579 |
| DRAW NO BET | New York City FC -673 / CF Montréal +451 |
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