Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

New York City have forgotten how to win at home and Atlanta have forgotten how to travel, and Wednesday at Citi Field one of those habits has to bend. The hosts are missing the midfielders who make their attack work.

The Matchup

Home has not meant much to New York City this season. They won only 4 of 15 at home, drew 5, and they come into Wednesday winless in five, with draws against Atlanta and LAFC and losses to Chicago and Miami in that run. Atlanta's road record is no better as a whole, 4 wins in 15, but they did win 3-0 at Montreal on October 14, the best away performance either of these sides has produced in weeks.

Neither club has named its side yet. New York City are expected to build around Nicolás Fernández, who started the 2-2 draw at Orlando on October 24, with Alonso Martínez alongside him. Atlanta are expected to start Alexey Miranchuk and Miguel Almirón behind their front line, the pairing that started the 3-2 loss to Chicago on October 24.

One absence shapes the home side. Playmaker Maxi Moralez is already ruled out with a leg injury per the league status report, and Keaton Parks is out with a leg injury as well, so the hosts are missing two of the midfielders who usually connect Fernández to the game.

Key Factors

Fernández is the one finisher in this game having a real season, with 15 goals, 4 of them penalties, and Atlanta conceded 54 goals this year, so the chances should come. The problem is everything around him. New York City scored 27 goals in 15 home games but turned that into only 4 wins, because they keep letting sides back in, and without Moralez their buildup slows to the point where Fernández feeds on scraps and set pieces. Atlanta's threat is real but thin.

Miranchuk and Almirón have 6 goals each, nobody else in the squad has more than 4, and Atlanta scored 16 goals in 15 away games all season. Their 3-0 win at Montreal showed what happens when Almirón gets room to run at a back line, and New York City's defense, which conceded 22 at home, will give him some. The honest counterpoint is Fernandez himself. If he gets service early and Atlanta's back line has one of its loose nights, the hosts can win this by two and the ticket is gone.

These two drew 2-2 when they met on September 26 and they have 17 draws between them this season, and Atlanta's last two games were losses, to Miami and Chicago, so a side that has won 8 of 31 does not get the benefit of the doubt for long. What Atlanta does not need here is a win. It needs to stay within one goal of a host that has managed four home wins all season.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.