Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Boston is the better team by a wide margin, and the number knows it. The question at TD Garden is narrower: can a Chicago team that just scored 127 points in a loss keep scoring often enough that a blowout line never quite gets there?

The Matchup

Boston is 3-1 and looks like Boston again. The Celtics score 119.8 points per game and allow 111.8, and they beat Brooklyn 125-124 on Tuesday in a game that never should have been that close. Jayson Tatum leads Boston in all three major categories at 28.0 points, 8.0 assists and 6.2 rebounds per game, and he has real help.

Paul George gives the Celtics a second wing scorer, and Derrick White and Payton Pritchard keep the offense moving when Tatum sits. Boston's only rotation absence is a minor one. Devin Carter is out, with a return expected around November 8.

Chicago is 1-4, and the record hides a strange team. The Bulls score 114.0 points per game and allow 130.2, the worst defensive mark in the league, and they lost 133-127 to New York on Wednesday in a game where their offense gave them a chance all night. Norman Powell leads Chicago at 21.6 points per game, Josh Giddey leads the team at 8.0 assists per game, and the Bulls play fast enough that their games become shootouts whether they want that or not.

With both teams only a week into the season, these numbers pair this season's games with last season's final marks, and last season says the gap is real but smaller than this price. Boston outscored opponents by 7.7 points per game last season, Chicago was outscored by 5.2.

DraftKings makes Boston a 15.5-point favorite at TD Garden, with the Celtics at -850 on the moneyline and a total of 235.5.

Key Factors

Chicago's injury report matters more than Boston's. Nic Claxton is out, with a return expected around November 4, which removes the Bulls' best rim protector from a game where they were already struggling to protect anything.

Patrick Williams is listed out with soreness and a return date of today, and Jalen Smith, who leads Chicago at 8.2 rebounds per game, is day-to-day. Keep an eye on whether Smith plays before placing a bet, because a Bulls team missing both of its rotation bigs has no answer for Boston at the rim at all.

The counterweight is pace and shot volume. Chicago's defense is bad enough that Boston will score in the 120s without doing anything special. The cover math runs through the Bulls' offense instead. A team that takes this many shots and scores this freely does not need to win stretches of the game to stay inside 15.5. It needs to avoid the one dead quarter where Boston's second unit turns a 10-point game into a 25-point game, and the Bulls have enough scorers in Powell and Giddey to usually find points somewhere.

The honest risk is obvious. If Boston defends the first quarter with real intent, Tatum can have this decided by halftime and the backdoor never opens. But Boston has already let Brooklyn hang 124 on it this week, and favorites this large usually win the game long before they win the margin. Chicago's job is simply to keep scoring, and scoring is the one thing it reliably does.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.