Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Houston is the league's last unbeaten team and just hung 132 on Milwaukee, but Alperen Sengun, who leads the Rockets in scoring, rebounding and assists, is day-to-day with soreness. Dallas just beat Oklahoma City by 24 at home behind Cooper Flagg, who is producing like a star a week into his career.

The Matchup

Houston is 5-0, the best start in the league, and the Rockets have earned it at both ends. They score 123.0 points per game and allow 108.8, and they dismantled Milwaukee 132-100 on Wednesday. Alperen Sengun leads Houston in everything at 24.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game, a center who runs the offense like a guard.

Kevin Durant gives the Rockets a second scorer who needs no help getting his shot, and Amen Thompson and Fred VanVleet round out a deep, physical rotation. The cloud over all of it is Sengun's status. He is day-to-day with soreness and a return date of today, so keep an eye on whether Sengun plays before placing a bet. Reed Sheppard is out, Marcus Smart is out with a strain, and Steven Adams is out with a strain, so Houston's depth is already thinner than the record suggests.

Dallas is 3-2 and coming off its best win of the young season, a 120-96 rout of Oklahoma City at home on Wednesday. The Mavericks score 114.0 points per game and allow 112.0. Cooper Flagg leads Dallas at 25.2 points and 6.8 assists per game, producing like an established star in his first week, and P.J.

Washington leads the team at 7.8 rebounds per game. Kyrie Irving gives Dallas a second proven creator. The Mavericks have their own frontcourt hole. Dereck Lively II is out after surgery, Santi Aldama and Tarik Biberovic are also out, and Naji Marshall is day-to-day, so Daniel Gafford carries a heavy load inside.

With both teams only a week into the season, these numbers pair this season's games with last season's final marks. Houston was a 52-win team last season and Dallas won 26, which is real history, but Dallas at home with Flagg playing like this is not last season's team.

DraftKings makes Houston a 5.5-point road favorite at American Airlines Center, with the Rockets at -205 on the moneyline and a total of 227.5.

Key Factors

Sengun's status shapes everything. With him, Houston's offense is a hub-and-spoke machine that manufactures good shots every trip. Without him, or with him limited, the Rockets become a Durant isolation team with good defenders around him, which is a far more guardable thing. Dallas can plan for both, but the version without Sengun is the one where a 5.5-point road favorite starts to look fragile, and even a diminished Sengun changes how aggressively Flagg and Irving can attack the rim.

Flagg against Houston's wings is the matchup Dallas wants. The Rockets defend with size and physicality, and Flagg has handled every coverage so far by playing through contact and making the extra pass. If Houston has to send help at him, Irving and Washington get clean looks, and Dallas's home shooting has been strong all week. The Mavericks just scored 120 on the league's most respected defense. Houston's is very good, but it is not better than Oklahoma City's by enough to flip that result on the road.

Texas games between these two are usually tight, and the spot favors the home team. Houston is unbeaten and priced like it. Dallas is rested the same, dangerous at home, and catching points with the healthier star. If Sengun sits, this line is simply wrong. If he plays at less than full strength, it is still too high.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.