New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Philadelphia is 4-1, playing at home, and still catching points against a Knicks team it has looked better than all week. Tyrese Maxey is scoring like a star, Joel Embiid owns the paint, and New York needs Jalen Brunson to be the best guard on the floor to justify this price.

The Matchup

Philadelphia is 4-1, and the start is built on balance. The 76ers score 110.8 points per game and allow 107.4, and they beat Indiana 114-109 on Wednesday. Tyrese Maxey leads Philadelphia at 28.4 points per game and has been the best guard on the floor in most of their games.

LeBron James leads the team at 6.8 assists per game as a connector, and Joel Embiid leads the 76ers at 10.0 rebounds per game, still the player every opposing game plan starts with. Jaylen Brown is day-to-day with a return date of today, so keep an eye on whether Brown plays before placing a bet. His two-way wing minutes matter against New York's size.

New York is 2-3 and still sorting itself out. The Knicks score 109.8 points per game and allow 109.6, and they won a 133-127 shootout at Chicago on Wednesday that said more about the Bulls' defense than the Knicks' attack. Jalen Brunson leads New York at 25.8 points per game, Tyler Kolek leads the team at 7.0 assists per game, and Karl-Anthony Towns leads the Knicks at 13.8 rebounds per game.

Jose Alvarado is out with a sprain for New York, a small but real loss to their bench defense. With both teams only a week into the season, these numbers pair this season's games with last season's final marks. New York was the stronger team last season, outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game while Philadelphia was roughly even, and that history is most of why the Knicks are favored on the road.

DraftKings makes New York a 1.5-point road favorite at Xfinity Mobile Arena, with the Knicks at -122 on the moneyline and a total of 228.5.

Key Factors

The center matchup decides the tone. Embiid against Towns is power against skill, and Philadelphia can play through Embiid in the post in a way New York cannot easily answer without fouling. Towns will pull Embiid away from the rim at the other end, which is the Knicks' best counter, but the 76ers can live with Towns jumpers if it keeps Embiid out of foul trouble and controlling the glass at home.

The guard battle is closer than the prices suggest. Brunson is a proven playoff shot-maker, but Maxey is younger, faster, and scoring more right now, and Philadelphia does not need Maxey to win the matchup outright. It needs him to match Brunson's production while the 76ers' frontcourt wins its minutes, and at home that is a reasonable expectation. Philadelphia's deeper absences, Jabari Walker, Tacko Fall and Dominick Barlow among them, thin the bench but do not touch the starting five.

Both teams played Wednesday, so the legs are even, and the crowd is not. A 4-1 team at home, catching points, with the hottest guard in the game and the dominant center, is not the profile of an underdog. The market is pricing last season and the Knicks' name. This season's evidence points the other way.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.