Sunderland vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Premier League

Sunderland travel to Villa Park on Saturday sitting nineteenth on 8 points, one point behind seventeenth-placed Coventry City, while tenth-placed Aston Villa come home from a 4-4 draw at Manchester United knowing a win pulls them level on points with sixth-placed Everton.

The Matchup

Aston Villa return to Villa Park on Saturday in tenth place, and the table gives them a clear target. Unai Emery's side sit on 13 points from a 3-4-3 start, three points behind sixth-placed Everton, and a home win pulls them level with the European places while the rest of the weekend plays out. Sunderland arrive in nineteenth on 8 points from a 2-2-6 start, one point behind seventeenth-placed Coventry City, and a win in Birmingham lifts Régis Le Bris's side out of the relegation places.

Villa's season has been loud at both ends. They have scored 14 goals and conceded 17 in ten matches, and the last outing before the break summed it up, a 4-4 draw at Manchester United where Alysson scored in the first minute, Nicolas Jackson added a second in the fourth, John McGinn converted a penalty and Leon Goretzka made it 4-2 before United scored twice in stoppage time.

Jackson leads the side with 6 goals in 9 appearances and a team-high 23 shots, McGinn pairs 2 goals with a team-high 4 assists, and Johan Manzambi has added 2 goals and 3 assists in 7 appearances, so the chances come from several directions. The home record is the puzzle. Villa are only 1-2-2 at Villa Park with 6 goals scored, and some of their best league results, the wins at Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur and the home win over Manchester City, have come in games where Villa played in bursts and punished mistakes.

Sunderland's problem travels with them. They have scored 8 goals all season, and away from the Stadium of Light they are 0-1-4 with 13 goals conceded, 2.60 a match, a run that includes a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City and a 2-0 defeat at AFC Bournemouth.

Enzo Le Fée and Brian Brobbey share the team lead with 3 goals each, Le Fée scoring the penalty that beat Chelsea last time out, and Granit Xhaka has completed 455 accurate passes, a team high by a wide margin, yet no Sunderland player has more than 1 assist, which shows how rarely the final ball arrives. The Chelsea win, 1-0 at home with a clean sheet, proved this side can defend a lead when the game stays narrow. Their away games rarely stay narrow for long.

Neither club has named its side yet. Villa are expected to welcome Matty Cash back at right-back after he served his one-match suspension at Old Trafford, where Taylor Harwood-Bellis stood in, and the rest of the side that drew at Manchester United is expected to stay together, Zion Suzuki in goal behind Victor Lindelöf and Pau Torres, with Jackson leading the line.

Amadou Onana remains out with a knee injury and Matteo Ruggeri remains out with a hamstring injury, while Aaron Wan-Bissaka is a doubt after missing the last five matches with a hamstring injury. Sunderland are expected to have Omar Alderete available again after he served his suspension against Chelsea, and Nordi Mukiele, who started that win after a head injury, is expected to keep his place alongside Luke O'Nien.

Habib Diarra remains out with a muscle injury and Romaine Mundle remains out after knee surgery, while Dan Ballard is a doubt after his hamstring injury. Robin Roefs is expected to start in goal, with Xhaka and Noah Sadiki in midfield and Brobbey leading the line.

Key Factors

The shape of this game is set by Sunderland's away defending and Villa's fast starts. Sunderland concede 2.60 goals a match on the road, and Villa scored inside the first minute at Old Trafford and twice inside four minutes, with Alysson and McGinn arriving from the wide positions while Jackson occupies the center backs. If Villa score first at home, Sunderland have to open up, and a Sunderland side chasing a game away from home has been the leakiest version of this team, beaten 3-1 at Coventry City and 2-0 at Bournemouth in their last two league trips.

The honest counterpoint is that Villa have not turned Villa Park into a fortress, and their own defending gives Sunderland a route. Villa have won once in five home matches and conceded 7 goals in those five, and a side that let a two-goal lead slip at 2-0 and again at 4-2 at Old Trafford, conceding in the second and sixth minutes of stoppage time, cannot be trusted to close a game out.

Sunderland showed against Chelsea that a low block and one penalty can steal a result, and Le Fée has the delivery and the nerve for exactly that kind of afternoon. If it stays level past the hour, Villa's crowd gets restless and the pick needs two late goals against a packed defense.

What tilts it back is the weight of chances. Sunderland have scored 2 goals in their last five league matches, and their away scoring has come in one burst at Manchester City rather than as a habit. Villa, for all their wastefulness at the back, keep creating at the other end, with 10 goals in their last five league matches, and they face a defense that has already conceded 13 goals on its travels. Over a full afternoon at home, that pressure usually tells more than once.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.