Hawai'i vs Northern Illinois Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Hawai'i throws for 268.1 yards per game behind Micah Alejado and his 1,863 passing yards, while winless Northern Illinois converts just 30.5% on third down and averages 14.2 points per game.

01The Matchup

Two struggling offenses meet in DeKalb, and the difference is passing volume. Hawai'i is 1-6 and averages 345.6 yards and 15.7 points per game, throwing for 268.1 yards per game behind Micah Alejado, who has completed 180 of 305 passes for 1,863 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

Kainoa Carvalho leads the receivers with 384 yards on 32 catches, and DeVon Rice leads a thin ground game with 314 yards and 3 touchdowns. Northern Illinois is 0-6 and averages 307.7 yards and 14.2 points per game. Taron Dickens has thrown for 1,193 yards with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, Telly Johnson Jr. has rushed for 439 yards and 4 touchdowns, and DeAree Rogers has 422 receiving yards and 2 scores on 49 catches.

02Key Factors

Neither team runs it well: Hawai'i manages 77.4 rushing yards per game at 3.0 yards per carry, and Northern Illinois is only somewhat better at 101.0 and 3.5. The separation shows up on third down and in the pass rush. Hawai'i converts 36.6% on third down against 30.5% for the Huskies, has 12 sacks against 8, and holds a plus-1 turnover margin against a minus-1 mark for Northern Illinois, with 9 takeaways in 7 games.

The Huskies protect the passer by staying short, completing 64.0% at 6.1 yards per attempt, and Rogers gives Dickens a reliable chain-mover. The obvious risk on the favorite is the trip and a ground game that cannot salt away a lead, which puts the closing burden on Alejado and the defense.

03The Pick

Northern Illinois is winless for identifiable reasons: 14.2 points per game, a 30.5% third-down rate, and 4 passing touchdowns in 6 games is an offense that stalls in every phase. Hawai'i is limited too, but Alejado gives the visitors the one proven volume producer in this game, with 1,863 passing yards, and the Rainbow Warriors bring the better pass rush and the better third-down offense across the Pacific.

Laying 4.5 on the road is uncomfortable, but the Huskies have not shown the scoring punch to punish it. Editorial pick: Hawai'i -4.5.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.