Colorado Avalanche vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction: Best Bet for Monday

Colorado scores 4.21 goals per game and Chicago allows 3.79, the widest scoring mismatch on Monday's slate. The Blackhawks have lost four of their last five, and their power play, converting at 11.6 percent, offers no way to keep pace when the game opens up.

The Matchup

Colorado is 8-5-1 with a plus-1.14 differential, and the engine is an offense scoring 4.21 goals per game, the most productive attack in this matchup class. Nathan MacKinnon leads the Avalanche with 24 points and 15 assists, and Artturi Lehkonen has 12 goals, so the scoring comes from the top of the lineup in waves.

Colorado allows 3.07 per game, which keeps its games open, but open games favor the team with MacKinnon. Josh Manson is out and Logan O'Connor is day-to-day, absences that thin the edges without touching what makes Colorado dangerous.

Chicago is 4-9-1 at minus-1.57, scoring 2.21 goals per game and allowing 3.79, and the Blackhawks have lost four of their last five, twice by three goals. Connor Bedard leads the team with just 9 points, Roman Kantserov has 5 goals and Patrick Kane has 8 assists, a veteran still creating on a team that cannot finish enough of it.

Bowen Byram is day-to-day on a blue line that is already overwhelmed most nights. In goal, Spencer Knight sits at 3.21 and .897 and Arvid Soderblom at 4.66 and .829, so Chicago has no crease answer when Colorado's top six gets rolling.

Key Factors

A puck line needs a margin, and the margin case here is arithmetic Chicago cannot escape. Colorado scores 4.21 per game against a defense allowing 3.79, while Chicago scores 2.21 against a Colorado team that does not need to be perfect to win by two. The Blackhawks' recent losses show the pattern: 4-1, 4-1 and an overtime loss in the last five, games that slip from one goal to three once Chicago chases. Chasing is fatal against MacKinnon's line, which turns broken coverage into odd-man rushes.

Special teams remove Chicago's comeback route. The Blackhawks convert 11.6 percent on the power play, so even when Colorado takes penalties, the home team rarely cashes them, and Colorado kills 76.9 percent behind Mackenzie Blackwood at 2.73 and .897.

Chicago's one hope is a sleepy road start from an Avalanche team that has alternated wins and losses for two weeks. But Colorado has scored five or more in three of its last five, and a team with this much top-end scoring does not need its best night to clear a two-goal margin against the league's most generous defense.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.