Calgary Flames vs San Jose Sharks Prediction: Best Bet for Monday

Calgary owns the most dangerous power play in this game at 33.3 percent, and it runs straight into a San Jose penalty kill stopping 84.0 percent. With Jonathan Huberdeau out and Dustin Wolf struggling in goal, the Flames need that one unit to win the night in San Jose.

The Matchup

San Jose is 7-7-1 at minus-0.73, scoring 2.67 goals per game and allowing 3.40, a young team that wins its home games with special teams and goaltending rather than depth. Macklin Celebrini leads the Sharks with 16 points and 11 assists and Will Smith has 6 goals, so the future of the franchise is already its present.

Yaroslav Askarov has a 3.01 goals-against average and a .900 save percentage, with Alex Nedeljkovic nearly identical behind him at 3.09 and .899, which gives San Jose a stable crease either way. Alexander Wennberg is on injured reserve, a real loss down the middle, but the Sharks' identity does not run through him.

Calgary is 6-8-0 at minus-1.14, scoring 2.57 per game and allowing 3.71, and the Flames' problems start in their own net. Dustin Wolf, their starter, sits at 4.39 and .847, and Devin Cooley, who had been their best goaltender at 2.69 and .914, is on injured reserve.

Jonathan Huberdeau is on injured reserve after surgery and Connor Zary is out after surgery, removing two top-nine forwards from a team that was already short on finish. Joel Farabee leads Calgary with 15 points and 5 goals and Matt Coronato has 11 assists, but the support scoring is thin and the defense keeps putting Wolf in bad spots.

Key Factors

Calgary's one elite weapon is its power play, converting 33.3 percent, and San Jose happens to own the counter: a penalty kill at 84.0 percent, backed by goaltenders who have both played at a .900 level. If the Sharks stay disciplined and their kill holds, Calgary is left with an even-strength attack scoring 2.57 per game, missing Huberdeau and Zary, against a home team that defends its building better than its overall numbers suggest. San Jose's own power play, at 23.1 percent, gets a Calgary kill at 81.8 percent that is solid but not special, so the special-teams battle is closer to even than the raw power play numbers imply.

The crease decides the rest. Askarov and Nedeljkovic have given San Jose league-average goaltending, while Wolf's season has been a struggle and his better partner is hurt. Calgary has allowed five or more twice in its last five, and a road team that cannot trust its goaltender cannot protect a lead or chase one. San Jose at home, with Celebrini driving play and the steadier net, is the side with fewer ways to lose.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.