Colorado State vs Utah State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Colorado State just won a 56-49 shootout with San Diego State, and Utah State's struggling offense now gets a defense that stops almost nobody. The Rams can score in bunches, but their defense keeps even a quiet home team in the conversation.

The Matchup

Hauss Hejny is playing the best football of any quarterback in this game, and Utah State has no answer on its own sideline to match him throw for throw. Hejny went 24 of 31 for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns with 1 interception against San Diego State, and Hejny has 13 touchdowns against 2 interceptions on the season while Colorado State averages 7.7 yards per attempt.

Colorado State scores 38.6 points per game, throws for 283.0 yards per game, and rushes for 177.1 yards per game at 5.6 yards per carry with 16 rushing touchdowns. That is a lot of ways to hurt a defense. Utah State scores 14.9 points per game and has scored only 2 rushing touchdowns all season.

Grady Brosterhous threw for 206 yards with no touchdowns against Texas State, and Javen Jacobs ran 14 times for 42 yards at 3.0 yards per carry in that 20-17 loss. Utah State simply does not have a proven way to keep up if Hejny gets Colorado State rolling again, because the Aggies lack both the rushing punch and the downfield passing to trade scores for long.

Key Factors

Colorado State's defense is why Utah State is favored at home, and that defense is a genuine problem. The Rams allow 44.0 points per game, gave up 66 to Texas State and 56 to Oregon State, and have only 8 sacks all season, so Brosterhous should have time and Utah State should score more than usual.

If Utah State finds the high twenties, Colorado State has to keep scoring for four quarters on the road, and Hejny has thrown just 104 passes this season in a run-friendly offense that can stall away from home. That is what beats the Rams here. The rest of the matchup still tilts toward Colorado State's offense.

Utah State has given the ball away 13 times with 10 interceptions thrown, Colorado State has taken 9 interceptions, and the Aggies allow 23.0 points per game against a schedule that has not included an offense this productive. Colorado State also converts 47.5 percent of third downs against Utah State's 35.8 percent, which is how a road underdog sustains drives in Logan and keeps answering when the home team finally scores.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.