Cowboys vs Colts Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Nov 8, 2026

Dallas visits Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, with both teams trying to stop a slide. The Cowboys lost a tight one at Arizona last week, and the Colts have dropped four straight at 2-6.

The Matchup

Indianapolis is not a good team right now, but this specific matchup gives the Colts a way to hang around at home. Dallas allows 26.6 points per game, and Jonathan Taylor gives Indianapolis a direct way at that weakness. Taylor has 148 carries for 610 yards and 8 touchdowns, and the Colts rush for 116.5 yards per game. Dallas throws it far better than it runs it, at 255.8 passing yards against 94.1 rushing yards per game.

Indoors, with no weather to blame, the contrast is clean. The Colts want a Taylor game. The Cowboys want a Dak Prescott game. I give the home team's preferred script a better chance of holding together than the record suggests.

Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are the reason Dallas is favored, and fairly so. Prescott has 2,046 yards with 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and Lamb has 60 catches for 709 yards and 6 touchdowns. Indianapolis makes their job easier.

Justin Walley is out with a knee injury at cornerback, Cam Taylor-Britt is on injured reserve with a groin injury at cornerback, and Alec Pierce is on injured reserve with a heel injury at receiver. Anthony Gould is also out with a concussion at receiver and Bryce Boettcher is out with a groin injury at linebacker. That is heavy damage for a team already allowing 27.8 points per game.

Dallas has concerns of its own that keep this from feeling like a walkover. Dee Winters is out with a calf injury at linebacker, which helps Taylor's case between the tackles. Jake Ferguson is questionable with an ankle injury at tight end, a useful outlet for Prescott if Indianapolis does get pressure home.

Keep an eye on whether Jake Ferguson plays before placing a bet. P.J. Locke is questionable with a concussion at safety and Caleb Downs is questionable with a concussion at safety, so the back of the Dallas defense could be thin in a dome where Indianapolis has to throw at some point.

Key Factors

Taylor's workload is the Colts' cover path and everyone in the building knows it. Indianapolis scores only 20.1 points per game and has thrown just 5 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. The Colts cannot win a clean passing game against anyone. They can shorten the afternoon with Taylor, keep Prescott watching, and turn this into a one-score fourth quarter at home. Dallas at 3-5 has not earned much trust as a road favorite either, coming off a 33 to 30 loss at Arizona.

The favorite case is easy to make and it is mostly about Lamb. Dallas scores 27.4 points per game, Prescott protects the ball far better than the Colts do, and Indianapolis has a turnover mark of minus 11 with 15 giveaways. Against a secondary missing Walley and Taylor-Britt, Lamb could take over stretches of this game.

It falls short as a laying-points case because Dallas allows 26.6 points per game itself and rarely plays a clean defensive game. A favorite that gives up points in bunches leaves the back door open all afternoon, especially indoors against a back as good as Taylor.

What beats this pick is Indianapolis doing what it has done for a month. If the Colts fall behind early, as they did in a 42 to 7 loss to Jacksonville in Week 8, Taylor stops mattering and the passing game has to chase. That version of Indianapolis throws interceptions, gives Dallas short fields, and loses by two scores without much drama. An early Dallas lead that forces the Colts to throw is the loss, and this team has shown it can get there fast.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.