Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Tampa Bay scores 3.69 goals per game with Nikita Kucherov dealing 14 assists already, and Detroit arrives without its captain and its best young defenseman. The Red Wings kill penalties at 68.9 percent, which is a dangerous number to bring into a building where chances come in waves.

The Matchup

Tampa Bay is 8-3-2 at plus-0.46 per game, scoring 3.69 goals and allowing 3.23, and the offense still runs through Nikita Kucherov, who has 14 assists and 18 points. Brandon Hagel leads the Lightning with 8 goals, so Tampa Bay scores from its top line and from the second wave behind it. Andrei Vasilevskiy is at a 3.00 goals-against average and a .877 save percentage, ordinary numbers by his standards, but the team in front of him gives him leads to protect most nights.

Detroit is 6-5-3 at minus-0.14, scoring 2.79 per game and allowing 2.93, and the Red Wings' best players are watching. Dylan Larkin is on injured reserve, Simon Edvinsson is on injured reserve, and Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are also on injured reserve, with Albert Johansson out as well.

That is the captain, a top-pair defenseman, and two middle-six forwards gone at once. Alex DeBrincat still leads Detroit with 15 points and Viktor Arvidsson has 8 goals, but the support behind them is thin. In net, John Gibson sits at 3.37 and .860, while Daniil Tarasov has been sharp in a smaller role at 1.40 and .940.

Tampa Bay's own list is shorter. Zemgus Girgensons is out with a lower-body injury and Yanni Gourde is on injured reserve after hip surgery, while Erik Cernak is day to day with an undisclosed injury. Keep an eye on whether Cernak plays before placing a bet.

Key Factors

Detroit's penalty kill is the crack Tampa Bay will pry at. The Red Wings kill just 68.9 percent of their penalties, and while Tampa Bay's power play converts a modest 15.2 percent, the Lightning generate so many chances that the volume alone eventually tells. Flip it around and Tampa Bay kills 77.1 percent against a Detroit power play at 22.9 percent, so the Red Wings' best route to an upset goal is partly closed before the game starts.

Goaltending is the honest counterpoint, and it is a real one. Vasilevskiy has not been himself this season, and Tarasov's numbers say Detroit could get the better night in net if he starts, which is how a heavy favorite gets dragged into a one-goal game. The problem for Detroit is everything in front of the crease.

Without Larkin the Red Wings lose their best matchup center and their power-play trigger, and without Edvinsson their blue line cannot move the puck against Tampa Bay's forecheck. A short-handed team can survive one of those losses. Surviving all of them, on the road, against a team scoring 3.69 a night is a different ask.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.