Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Winnipeg has lost five straight games and scores 2.33 goals per game, and now it walks into the one building where Tampa Bay has not lost all season. The Lightning are 5-0-0 at home, and Thursday asks a cold offense to keep pace in the loudest spot on its schedule so far.

The Matchup

Winnipeg's problem is simple to state and hard to fix in one night. The Jets are 4-5-3, they score 2.33 goals per game, and they have lost five straight games. Kyle Connor has 9 goals and 12 points and Mark Scheifele has 6 assists, and after those two the scoring thins out fast for a team that allows 3.00 goals per game. A club that cannot reach three goals has to win every game 2-1, and Winnipeg has stopped winning those.

Tampa Bay does not have that problem, especially at home. The Lightning are 7-3-1 and 5-0-0 at Benchmark International Arena, and they score 3.45 goals per game against 3.09 allowed, a +0.36 differential per game against Winnipeg's -0.67. Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 14 points and 10 assists, and Brandon Hagel has a team-high 7 goals.

Hagel is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, and Victor Hedman is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Keep an eye on whether Hagel and Hedman play before placing a bet. Winnipeg's list is longer at the top: Josh Morrissey is on injured reserve with a right wrist injury and Vladislav Namestnikov is on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury, so the Jets are missing their best defenseman on the road.

Key Factors

The goaltending reads closer than the records do, and that is Winnipeg's one real path. Stuart Skinner is at a 2.60 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage for the Jets, better numbers than Andrei Vasilevskiy's 2.78 and .884 for Tampa Bay. If Skinner plays at that level, Winnipeg can drag this into a one-goal third period, which is where the Jets have lived all month.

Special teams offer Winnipeg no shortcut around the problem. Tampa Bay converts 15.0 percent of its power plays and kills 76.7 percent of its penalties, while Winnipeg converts 18.2 percent and kills 74.2 percent.

Nothing there flips a game by itself, so this gets decided at even strength, where Tampa Bay's home scoring depth meets a Winnipeg offense that has produced two goals or fewer in most of its losing streak. The Jets are 2-1-2 on the road, which says they travel competitively, but competitive has meant overtime losses lately, not wins.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.