Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Utah brings the loudest power play on the Tuesday slate to Toronto, converting 34.6 percent of its chances, and runs straight into a Maple Leafs penalty kill at 91.1 percent. Toronto scores 3.75 goals per game in its own building, so something in that special-teams clash has to give.

The Matchup

Toronto is 8-6-2 and plays the higher-event game of the two. The Maple Leafs score 3.75 goals per game and allow 3.25, a plus-0.50 differential, and Auston Matthews is carrying the offense almost by himself with 11 goals, 13 assists and 24 points. When Matthews is on the ice Toronto generates chances in bunches, and Utah's defense, which allows 3.47 per game, has spent the season giving up exactly that kind of volume.

Utah is 9-6-0 at plus-0.13, scoring 3.60 per game and allowing 3.47, so the Mammoth win their games by outscoring their leaks rather than preventing them. Clayton Keller leads Utah with 18 points and 14 assists, and Logan Cooley has 8 goals, which gives the Mammoth two lines that can hurt a team.

The crease tilts toward Toronto. Anthony Stolarz sits at a 2.66 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage, while Karel Vejmelka is at 3.31 and .872 for Utah, a gap that shows up most on the second and third chances Toronto creates around the net.

Toronto's injury list takes a real piece out of the middle. John Tavares is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, which pushes more defensive responsibility onto the remaining centers against Keller. Utah lists Kailer Yamamoto as day to day with an upper-body injury, and defenseman John Marino is on injured reserve, also upper body. Keep an eye on whether Yamamoto plays before placing a bet.

Key Factors

Special teams decide this game, and the clash is as clean as it gets. Utah converts 34.6 percent on the power play, the best mark in this matchup by a mile, and Toronto kills 91.1 percent of its penalties, which is the one unit built to survive it.

If the Maple Leafs stay disciplined and keep Utah's power play to a chance or two, the Mammoth lose the edge that has carried their offense. Toronto's own power play converts 30.0 percent against a Utah kill of just 68.8 percent, so the penalty trade actually favors the home team if the game gets chippy.

The honest case for Utah is that the Mammoth are the market favorite for a reason. Keller is in form, the power play is a genuine weapon, and Toronto allows enough goals to keep any skilled team in a game.

It fails if Stolarz keeps playing like the better goaltender in this matchup and Toronto's kill holds Utah's power play scoreless, because at even strength the Maple Leafs score more and defend their net better. Utah needs the game played on special teams. Toronto needs it played five on five, and home ice gives the Maple Leafs the last change to arrange that.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.