Eastern Illinois Panthers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Notre Dame is 2-0 and laying 28.5, but last season's Irish team lost more than it won, and Eastern Illinois has spent its first week getting beaten up by Indiana and Iowa. This spread prices Notre Dame like a different program than the one that played last winter.

The Matchup

Eastern Illinois visits Notre Dame on Monday night at Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, on ACCNX, with Notre Dame a 28.5-point favorite, a total of 141.5, and the Irish priced at -50,000 on the moneyline against the Panthers at +4,000. Notre Dame is 2-0. Eastern Illinois is 0-2, and the two losses tell you more about the schedule than the team.

The Panthers opened at Indiana and lost 91-57, then went to Iowa and lost 91-47. Tanner Vogel has been their best player at 9.5 points and 9.0 rebounds a game, and Jaden Miller leads them at 3.0 assists a game. Notre Dame beat Villanova 74-72 in a real game, then handled Mercyhurst 83-56. Brady Koehler leads the Irish at 16.5 points and 7.0 rebounds a game, and Braeden Smith is averaging 6.5 assists.

Last season's fuller picture is why this number looks rich. Notre Dame went 13-18, scoring 74.5 points a game and allowing 75.3, a team that was outscored over the full season. Eastern Illinois went 13-20, scoring 67.1 and allowing 70.3. The Irish were better, but they were not a program that buried people, and their two wins this season came by 2 and 27. Vogel's rebounding gives this season's Panthers one reliable way to end defensive possessions, and that matters more to a cover than their shooting has so far.

Key Factors

Start with what 28.5 requires. Notre Dame has to win huge in a game with a total of 141.5, which means holding Eastern Illinois near 55 while scoring in the low 80s. The Irish scored 74 against Villanova and 83 against Mercyhurst, so the low 80s is their ceiling so far, not their floor.

Vogel is the Panthers' route to a cover. A forward pulling down 9.0 rebounds a game shortens the game, limits second chances, and keeps Notre Dame from turning misses into runouts. If Eastern Illinois can drag this into a slower half-court game, 28.5 points is a long way for the favorite to travel.

The honest counterpoint is Eastern Illinois's offense, which has scored 57 and 47 against high-major defenses. If the Panthers score in the 50s again, Notre Dame does not need to be special to cover, just steady, and Koehler and Smith give the Irish a clear edge in shot creation. This pick needs Eastern Illinois to be merely limited on offense, not broken.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.