Mercyhurst Lakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Notre Dame is a huge home favorite after winning a two point game in its opener. Mercyhurst scored in the forties at Marquette, so the Lakers arrive in South Bend still looking for their first real offensive night.

The Matchup

Mercyhurst visits Notre Dame on Thursday night at Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, with Notre Dame a 20.5-point favorite, a total of 142.5, on ACCNX. Notre Dame is 1-0. Mercyhurst is 0-1 after a hard night at Marquette.

Last season Mercyhurst finished 17-17, scoring 69.4 points a game and allowing 67.4. Notre Dame finished 13-18, scoring 74.5 and allowing 75.3. The Irish allowed more points than they scored last season, which is a strange profile for a team now laying more than twenty points, even at home.

The openers point in opposite directions at first glance. Mercyhurst lost 78-43 at Marquette and scored almost nothing. Notre Dame beat Villanova 74-72, a real win against a real opponent. The question is not who wins. It is whether a Notre Dame team that just played a two point game is built to stretch a margin past twenty against anyone.

Key Factors

Mercyhurst does have one player who handled a high major stage. Jake Lemelman scored 16 points in 32 minutes at Marquette, on 6-of-15 shooting, and he was the Lakers' only player in double figures. Hunter Te Ratana added 8 points with 2 steals and a block. Lemelman gives Mercyhurst a guard who can slow a possession down, get a shot up late in the clock, and keep a blowout from turning into a parade of turnovers and runouts.

Notre Dame's own opener is the case against the big number. The Irish beat Villanova by two, with Brady Koehler scoring 16 points and grabbing 8 rebounds, Braeden Smith scoring 16 while going 10-of-11 at the free-throw line, and Braeden Shrewsberry adding 15. That is good, balanced basketball. It is not a team that buried anyone. Notre Dame won a close game with free throws and steadiness, and teams that win that way tend to win the next one the same way, by control rather than by avalanche.

The counterpoint is Mercyhurst's offense, and it is severe. The Lakers scored 43 points at Marquette, with Geoff Sprouse going 1-of-8, Or Faran 0-of-5, and Deraje Agbaosi 0-of-5. If Mercyhurst shoots like that again, Notre Dame does not need to be great to cover, because thirty empty possessions turn into transition chances all night. The bet is that Lemelman and a slower, more careful game keep Mercyhurst's scoring in a normal range, and a normal range is enough when the cushion is this wide.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.