Evansville Purple Aces vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 12 Kentucky is 3-0 after winning at NC State on Sunday, and Evansville arrives at Memorial Coliseum winless after two road losses. The Wildcats are favored by 50.5, and a number that large turns the fourth quarter into the whole bet.

The Matchup

Kentucky has opened 3-0, and the third win is the one that tells you something. The Wildcats beat Morehead State 85-42 and Northern Kentucky 79-28 at home, then went to NC State on Sunday and won 93-78 behind Ajsa Sivka, who scored 32 points and made 8 three-pointers.

Clara Strack scored 24 points in that game after 17 and 11 in the two home routs, and Asia Boone scored 21 against Northern Kentucky. Kentucky has scored 85.7 points per game this season and allowed 49.3. Sivka, Strack and Boone carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

Evansville's first week was two road losses with the same shape. The Purple Aces lost 90-65 at DePaul and 62-49 at Lindenwood on Saturday, scoring 57.0 points per game and allowing 76.0, and the scoring has come from more places than the record suggests. Jayden Scott has come off the bench to score 13 points at DePaul and a team-high 12 at Lindenwood, and Mireia Mustaros scored 15 points on 6 of 8 shooting at DePaul. Scott and Mustaros carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

Two games is a thin read on Evansville, and last season is part of the picture for both teams. Kentucky went 25-11 last season, scoring 74.9 points per game and allowing 60.9, and this season's jump has come with Sivka shooting the ball the way she did at NC State. Evansville went 10-25, scoring 68.2 and allowing 75.7, and nothing in the first week says the Aces have closed that gap. The gap is real. The question is only its size on a Wednesday night in Lexington.

Key Factors

Kentucky is favored by 50.5, and the Wildcats' first two home games show both sides of a number like this. They beat Morehead State by 43, which does not cover, and Northern Kentucky by 51, which does, and in both games the starters' minutes told the story of a staff managing a rout: Strack played 22 and 25 minutes, Sivka 27 and 27. When Kentucky's bench plays the last quarter, the scoring slows and the clock becomes Evansville's friend.

Evansville's problem is the ball. The Aces turned it over 20 times at DePaul and 21 at Lindenwood, and Kentucky just forced Northern Kentucky into 28 turnovers and a 6-for-44 shooting night. If Scott and Mustaros get the Aces into their half-court offense, Evansville has enough shooting to make 50.5 a long way to run: Kelyn Johnson has made 3 three-pointers in each of the first two games. If the turnovers pile up early, Kentucky's transition game ends the argument by halftime.

The honest worry is that Kentucky has already done this once in this building, beating Northern Kentucky by 51 with room to spare, and Evansville is 0-2 against a lighter schedule than the one Kentucky has played. If Sivka shoots anything like she did at NC State, the margin could be past the number before the benches empty. The bet is on Scott's bench scoring and Kentucky's short starter minutes keeping this in the 30s or low 40s.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.