Kentucky Wildcats vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 14 Kentucky has allowed 35 points a game through two home routs, and No. 25 NC State has scored 80 in both of its wins. Sunday at the Ally Tipoff in Charlotte, the Wildcats are favored by 5.5 on a neutral floor, with the best rim protector in the matchup standing between NC State and its favorite shots.

The Matchup

Kentucky and NC State have spent the first week beating up on visitors, and Sunday in Charlotte they finally get each other. Kentucky, ranked No. 14, beat Morehead State 85-42 and Northern Kentucky 79-28, both at home, allowing 35.0 points per game across the two. NC State, ranked No. 25, beat Wofford 80-50 and Campbell 80-45 in Raleigh, scoring 80 points in each game. Neither team has left home yet, and the Ally Tipoff floor at the Spectrum Center belongs to neither of them.

The matchup inside is the first thing to watch. Kentucky center Clara Strack scored 17 points with 9 rebounds and 6 blocked shots against Morehead State, then 11 points with 10 rebounds and 4 more blocks against Northern Kentucky. Asia Boone scored 21 points with 5 three-pointers in the second game, and Me'Arah O'Neal reached double figures in both. Strack, Boone and O'Neal carry no injury designations for Sunday.

NC State's best players have been just as loud. Zoe Brooks scored 23 points with 6 assists against Wofford and 16 with 5 assists against Campbell. Khamil Pierre scored 15 points with 11 rebounds in the opener and 21 with 11 more rebounds in the second game, and Ky'She Lunan scored 21 against Wofford. Brooks, Pierre and Lunan carry no injury designations.

Last season gives the longer view of two rosters that have each played twice. Kentucky finished 25-11, scoring 74.9 points per game and allowing 60.9. NC State finished 21-11, scoring 76.7 and allowing 67.1, and the Wolfpack have won the last three meetings between these programs. Kentucky's edge last season was defensive, and nothing about the first week has changed that picture.

Key Factors

Strack is the hinge. NC State's offense runs through Brooks attacking off the dribble and Pierre finishing inside, and both of them have to solve a rim protector who blocked 10 shots in two games. Pierre has the strength to go at Strack and try to put her in foul trouble, and that duel cuts both ways: if Strack picks up two early fouls, Kentucky loses its eraser and its best rebounder in the same move, and NC State's whole offense breathes easier.

Kentucky's rebounding is the second pressure point. The Wildcats took down 60 rebounds against Northern Kentucky, 28 of them on the offensive glass, and shot only 34 percent while still winning by 51. That is a team that can survive a bad shooting afternoon by playing volleyball at the rim. NC State held its own on the glass against Wofford and Campbell, but Kentucky's size is a different weight class, and Pierre cannot box out three Wildcats by herself.

The counterpoint is real, and it wears red. NC State's guards are the best Kentucky has faced, Brooks is averaging 19.5 points through two games, and the Wolfpack's comfort in this matchup is earned, with wins in the last three meetings. If Kentucky's half-court offense stalls the way it did for stretches against Northern Kentucky, where the Wildcats needed second chances to score, NC State's backcourt can win this game outright in the fourth quarter.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.