Everton vs Newcastle United Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Premier League

Everton beat Newcastle United 3-1 in the EFL Cup on Thursday night, and on Monday they walk into St. James' Park to face the same opponents again in the league. Newcastle have won once at home all season, Everton are still waiting for a first away win, and four days is all that separates the cup tie from the rematch.

The Matchup

The league table puts one point between these two. Newcastle United sit eleventh at 3-2-3 with 11 points, Everton fourteenth at 2-4-2 with 10, and neither season has found any rhythm yet. Newcastle's home record is the puzzle at the heart of Monday night. They have won once in four at St. James' Park, drawing 2-2 with Liverpool and AFC Bournemouth, beating Hull City 2-1 and losing 1-0 to Aston Villa. A ground that is supposed to carry them has mostly produced stalemates and one flat defeat.

Everton's away record reads worse than it plays. They are winless in four on the road, but three of the four ended level, a 1-1 draw at AFC Bournemouth, a goalless draw at Tottenham Hotspur and a 2-2 draw at Hull City, and the only defeat came at Arsenal. This is a side that travels to frustrate, defends its box in numbers and takes a point when a point is there.

Then there is Thursday night. Everton beat Newcastle 3-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium in the EFL Cup, and a result like that travels with both teams into a rematch four days later. Neither club has named its side yet; the expectation is Thierno Barry leading Everton's line and Harvey Barnes starting for Newcastle, both after starting their clubs' last league matches.

Key Factors

Thierno Barry is Everton's outlet and their most likely route to a goal. The striker leads the team with 3 goals and has taken 27 shots, more than any other Everton player, and a Newcastle defence that has conceded 14 goals in eight matches gives him something real to aim at. Harvey Barnes carries Newcastle's threat at the other end, with 2 goals, 2 assists and a team-high 19 shots, and Everton's back line has to track his runs in from the left all night.

The honest case against Everton sits in their own scoring record. They have scored 8 goals in eight matches and only 3 of them away from home, so any faith in the visitors rests on their defending, not their attack.

If Newcastle score first and the crowd gets up, Everton have shown little ability to chase a game on the road, and a home side that won 2-0 at Crystal Palace in its last league outing is well capable of putting this away early. Everton's whole plan depends on keeping the game level and tight deep into the second half.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.