Inter Miami CF vs New England Revolution Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

Second place in the East is on the line at Gillette Stadium, where New England's three straight wins run into the league's highest-scoring attack.

The Matchup

Second place in the Eastern Conference is the prize at Gillette Stadium, and both clubs arrive level on 55 points. New England sit second because their season has been built at home, with 10 wins in 15 games in Foxborough and only 16 goals conceded on their own field. The recent form matches the position. Two heavy defeats, 3-0 at Real Salt Lake in late September and 3-0 at home to Seattle on October 10, were followed by three straight wins, 3-2 at Cincinnati, 1-0 over Chicago and 2-1 at Philadelphia on October 24.

Miami bring the louder attack and the leakier defense. They have scored 73 goals, more than anyone in the league, and 32 of them came in 16 road games, but they have also conceded 27 on those same trips and 53 in all. Their last five games tell both halves of that story, with 10 goals scored and a 2-0 defeat at Red Bull New York on October 24, the one game in the run where the front line drew a blank. The first meeting this season finished 1-1 in Miami on April 25, a game neither side could stretch into a win.

Neither club has named its side yet. New England are expected to build around Carles Gil, with Dor Turgeman leading the line, the pairing that carried the three straight wins. Miami are expected to restore Lionel Messi to the front three alongside Luis Suárez and Germán Berterame, the trio that started the wins over D.C.

United, New York City and Atlanta. The absences sit deeper in both squads. The league status report lists New England forward Leo Campana out with a lower-body injury, along with Jack Harrison and Alhassan Yusuf, and Miami are without Tadeo Allende and Mateo Silvetti for the season and Fricio Caicedo with a knee injury.

Key Factors

Gil is the reason New England can control a game like this. He has 13 goals this season, 7 of them from the penalty spot, and he has created 9 big chances, the most on his team, because he takes the ball in the pocket behind the midfield and plays forward before a defense can set.

Turgeman gives him a target worth finding, with 10 goals and a habit of running across the front of his marker. Against Miami that pocket is usually open. Miami press high and commit numbers forward, and the space left behind the first wave is exactly where Gil wants to receive the ball.

The other end is where Miami make their case, and it is a strong one. Messi has 25 goals and 15 assists, Suárez has 15 goals of his own and Berterame has 9, and a front three with those numbers does not need many chances to change a game. New England's bad days show the risk plainly.

When their midfield gets stretched, the way it did in the two 3-0 defeats, the back line faces wave after wave and the game runs away from them. Will Sands is questionable with a lower-body injury, and New England's defensive depth is not built for another absence back there, so keep an eye on whether Sands plays before placing a bet.

What tilts the game is place and pattern. New England have turned Gillette Stadium into a hard away day, patient without the ball and ruthless in the moments Gil gets turned toward goal.

Miami's road games keep turning into trades of chances, and a trade favors the side whose defense holds its shape, which this season has not been Miami's. Both clubs also come through a Wednesday night game first, New England at home to Red Bull New York and Miami at home to Cincinnati, and only Miami have to travel north afterward.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.