FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami CF Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

The marquee game of the week brings Cincinnati's fearless, leaky attack to Miami, where a rested Lionel Messi and the league's highest-scoring side wait with a point to prove after Saturday's defeat.

The Matchup

It is the game the whole week revolves around, and Miami get it at home. Miami scored 73 goals in 31 league games, more than anyone in the league, and 41 of them came in 15 home games. Cincinnati are the rare visitor built to trade punches with that. They scored 64 goals themselves, but they also conceded 71, and their away record tells the story plainly, with 41 goals conceded in 16 road games.

Neither club has named its side yet. Miami are expected to restore Lionel Messi to the starting side, with Luis Suárez leading the line. Messi is not injured. He was rested from the start of the 2-0 loss at Red Bull New York on October 24 after a midweek trip to Spain for an awards ceremony, he came on in the second half of that game, and reports out of Miami this week have a well-rested Messi expected to start this one.

Cincinnati are expected to pair Kévin Denkey with Tom Barlow in their 3-5-2, with Evander behind them, but their defense is already ruled short. The league status report lists center-back Miles Robinson out with a leg injury, along with Tyrell Malacia and Julián Malatini, and a back three missing Robinson is a serious problem against this attack.

Key Factors

Messi's numbers bend every game he plays. He has 25 goals this season, and he scored twice in the 3-1 win at Atlanta on October 17, the last game he started before the rest at New York. Suárez has 15 goals of his own and Germán Berterame has 9, so Cincinnati cannot solve this by crowding one man. The mechanism is space.

Cincinnati's wing-backs push high in the 3-5-2, Evander drifts between lines looking for Denkey, who has 17 goals, and that adventure is exactly what Miami's front three want, because every Cincinnati attack that breaks down leaves a patched-up back line defending in the open field. The counterpoint deserves respect. Cincinnati won 2-0 at D.C. United on October 24, Denkey and Evander, who has 14 goals, can hurt a Miami defense that conceded 53 goals this season, and Miami's home record includes 7 draws in 15 games, which is how favorites bleed in this format.

Miami also lost that game at New York on Saturday. The difference is context. That loss came with Messi rested and Miami's place near the top of the East already secure. A full-strength Miami at home, against a defense that has leaked goals all season, is a different proposition, and Cincinnati's style gives Miami the open game they want most.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.