Necaxa vs Santos Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Liga MX Apertura
Santos defends Torreón like a top-four side and attacks like a bottom-half one on the road, and Sunday brings the home version. Necaxa, winless away and seventeenth, leans on one scorer for almost everything, which is a thin plan at the Corona.
The Matchup
Santos is two teams in one season. At home the record is 4-1-2 with only 3 goals conceded in seven matches at the Corona, including a 5-0 win over Querétaro and a 2-0 win over Pumas in the last two home fixtures. Away, Santos has lost five of seven and shipped 17 goals.
Necaxa gets the home version on Sunday. The visitors are seventeenth at 2-4-8, winless away at 0-3-3, and Julián Carranza has 7 of their 16 goals, which makes Necaxa the easiest attack in the league to plan for. Tahiel Jiménez leads Santos with 5 goals and Ezequiel Bullaude has 3.
Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Jiménez leading Santos after starting at Tijuana on October 26, with Bullaude behind him. For Necaxa, Carranza is expected to start after leading the line in the 1-1 draw with Juárez on October 24. Santos was without Lucas Di Yorio and Bruno Amione for the Tijuana match, both listed unavailable by FotMob, and neither is a player this lean depends on.
Key Factors
Home defending is the whole case. Three goals conceded in seven home matches is the best home defensive record in the league, and Santos pairs it with enough scoring, 10 goals at home, to turn control into wins. Necaxa's away games run the other way, 7 scored and 12 conceded, and a side that has drawn three of six on the road tends to settle for a point long before it chases a win.
The counterpoint arrived on Monday. Santos lost 4-1 at Tijuana, a flat performance that ended a run of home-driven optimism, and Carranza is exactly the kind of penalty-box forward who punishes a side having an off night, with two of his seven goals from the spot and a habit of scoring in clusters. Santos also draws winnable home games when the first goal does not come. Even with those caveats, a winless away side with the league's most one-man attack is the wrong opponent for the Corona.
Editorial pick. This pick is a bet on which Santos shows up. The home version defends its box in numbers, plays with patience and turns the Corona into a long night for visitors; the road version chases games and falls apart, as it did at Tijuana on Monday. Necaxa get the home version, and their whole attacking plan is to find Carranza in the box and hope.
One scorer is a thin plan against a set defense, and a side that has not won away all season has given no sign it can improvise a second one. Santos do not need to chase this game, and patience is exactly what beats a one-man attack. Take Santos -0.5 at -111.
Game information
| DATE | Sunday (11/1) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 5:00 PM CT |
| VENUE | Estadio Corona, Torreón |
| COMPETITION | Liga MX |
| ROUND | Liga MX Apertura Matchday 15 |
| SPREAD | Santos -0.5 (-111) |
| TOTAL | 3.25 (Over -115 · Under -104) |
| MONEYLINE | Santos -112 / Draw +306 / Necaxa +260 |
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