Florida A&M Rattlers vs UAB Blazers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Florida A&M is winless after two home losses, but Jaden Kempson is scoring 24.0 points a game and UAB has allowed 81.0 a game so far. The Rattlers head to Bartow Arena getting 16.5 points.

The Matchup

Florida A&M visits UAB on Monday evening at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, on ESPN+, with UAB a 16.5-point favorite, a total of 154.5, and the Blazers priced at -1,800 on the moneyline against Florida A&M at +1,000. Florida A&M is 0-2 and plays on the road for the first time this season. UAB is 1-1.

Florida A&M has had a rough first week, and the details matter more than the record. The Rattlers lost 112-69 at home to Florida State, then lost 75-70 at home to Fort Valley State, a game a team with their ambitions has to win.

Jaden Kempson has been the one constant, leading Florida A&M at 24.0 points a game, and Antonio Baker Jr. leads the Rattlers at 6.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists a game. Kempson is not working with much help yet, and that is the central problem UAB has to solve in reverse: stop one scorer and the Rattlers stall.

UAB split its first two games, losing 99-78 at McNeese before beating Nicholls 70-63 at home. Deuce Jones leads the Blazers at 13.0 points a game, Jeremy Elyzee leads them at 8.0 rebounds a game, and Elijah Duval leads them at 3.5 assists a game. Those leader numbers tell the story of this UAB team so far: balanced, physical, and still waiting for somebody to take over a game.

Last season is the steadier guide for both teams, and it sets a clear gap. UAB went 20-12, scored 79.2 points a game, and allowed 73.8. Florida A&M went 15-16, scored 70.4 points a game, and allowed 74.6. The early numbers this season deserve a careful read for the Rattlers in particular: their 93.5 points allowed per game across two games includes the Florida State blowout, and a defense that was ordinary last season has looked worse than ordinary so far, which is exactly what has to change for them to hang around in Birmingham.

Key Factors

Kempson against a defense that has not settled is the matchup that decides whether this spread is live. UAB has allowed 81.0 points a game through two games, including 99 at McNeese, and a team that defends like that early in a season usually gives a hot scorer room to keep his team in it. Kempson at 24.0 points a game is not a one-game spike in usage; Baker is the only other Rattler leading a category, and Florida A&M runs its offense through Kempson because it has to.

The total of 154.5 cuts both ways. Last season UAB scored 79.2 points a game and Florida A&M allowed 74.6, so a high total is no surprise, but UAB has scored 74.0 a game so far this season and its leader is at 13.0 points a game. Covering 16.5 asks the Blazers to score in bunches through a committee, and committees have quiet stretches. Neither team has a player listed out for this game in the ESPN injury report, so both rotations are what they appear to be.

The honest counterpoint is Florida A&M itself. The Rattlers lost at home to Fort Valley State, they have allowed 93.5 points a game, and if UAB pushes the pace early and Kempson has an ordinary night, this can get away from Florida A&M the way the Florida State game did.

UAB is at home, it was the better team last season by a real margin, and a focused first half from the Blazers probably ends the argument. The bet is that Kempson's scoring and UAB's uneven early defense keep the Rattlers within range longer than the number expects.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.