Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Boston allows 2.35 goals per game and has lost once at home all season, and Jeremy Swayman is the largest reason why. Florida counters with Matthew Tkachuk and his 25 points and a penalty kill that erases mistakes, but the Panthers walk into TD Garden still missing the two forwards who usually steady them.

The Matchup

Boston is 12-4-1, scoring 3.71 goals per game and allowing 2.35, a +1.35 differential that is the best in this game by more than a goal. David Pastrnak leads the Bruins with 8 goals, 14 assists, and 22 points, and Boston has been at its best in its own building, at 7-1-0 at home and 7-2-1 over its last ten. TD Garden games keep tilting toward the Bruins because the chances against dry up first and the scoring arrives later.

Florida is 9-6-2, scoring 3.24 per game and allowing 3.00 for a +0.24 differential. Matthew Tkachuk leads the Panthers with 25 points on 4 goals and 21 assists, and Brady Tkachuk has 10 goals. Florida has taken points on the road all season, at 5-4-2 away from home, so a Sunday matinee in Boston is not new territory. What is new is doing it against the stingiest defense on the slate without the forwards who usually close these games out.

Key Factors

The crease belongs to Boston. Jeremy Swayman has a 2.31 goals-against average and a .913 save percentage, and Michael DiPietro sits behind him at 2.21 and .925, so the Bruins are covered either way the start breaks. Florida's Akira Schmid is at 2.86 and .886, and Jacob Markstrom is at 2.57 and .885. Against a home team scoring 3.71 a night, Florida needs its goaltending to be the story, and its numbers say it rarely is.

Florida is still playing without its two steadiest forwards. Aleksander Barkov is out today. He is on long-term injured reserve with a left knee injury, with a return date of November 27. Brad Marchand is out today as well, on injured reserve with a left knee injury and a return date of November 21.

Anton Lundell is listed as out with an undisclosed injury and a return date of November 8, so his status is worth watching at warmups. Matthew Poitras is day-to-day for Boston with a nose fracture. Keep an eye on whether Poitras plays before placing a bet.

Florida's best answer is its penalty kill, which erases 85.3 percent of penalties against a Boston power play converting 19.6 percent, while the Panthers convert 23.7 percent against a Bruins kill of 76.8 percent. If the whistles pile up, Florida's special teams can steal the game.

The Florida case is that kill, the Tkachuk brothers, and a road record that has banked points in nine of eleven trips. It fails on the building and the blue line in front of Swayman. Boston allows 2.35 a night, has lost once at home, and gets a Florida team trying to protect a thin lead late without Barkov. The Panthers keep this close. Close in Boston has been a losing place to live.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.