Montreal Canadiens vs Boston Bruins Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Boston is 13-4-1 and has lost once at home all season, and Montreal arrives at TD Garden with one of the best road marks in the league at 6-1-1. Something in that pairing has to give on Thursday night.

The Matchup

Boston is 13-4-1, scoring 3.72 goals per game and allowing 2.28, a +1.44 differential built on the defensive end first. The Bruins are 8-1-0 at TD Garden, and the building has been a hard place to play all season because Boston simply does not give goals away: 2.28 allowed a night is the second-stingiest mark on the Thursday slate. David Pastrnak carries the attack with 8 goals, 16 assists and 24 points, and he does it on a team that does not need him to force anything, because the lead usually arrives on schedule.

Montreal is 11-3-4, scoring 3.33 per game and allowing 3.06 for a +0.28 differential, and the Canadiens have been the league's happiest travelers, going 6-1-1 on the road. Cole Caufield leads Montreal with 11 goals, and Lane Hutson has 18 points on 15 assists from the blue line. Montreal plays fast and loose and wins the games that open up. The question Thursday is whether Boston lets the game open up at all, because the Bruins' whole season says they will not.

Key Factors

The crease is close at the top and thin behind it. Jacob Fowler is confirmed to start for Montreal, at a 2.14 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage in 11 games, and those are excellent numbers.

Jeremy Swayman is at 2.21 and .920 in 13 games for Boston, with Michael DiPietro at 2.21 and .925 behind him, so the Bruins match Fowler's form and hold the deeper pair. Montreal's other goaltender, Jakub Dobes, is at 4.04 and .847, which matters only if the night goes badly early. Fowler keeps this honest. He does not tilt it.

Special teams offer Montreal no clean route either. Boston converts 18.3 percent on the power play and kills 77.0 percent of its penalties. Montreal converts just 14.8 percent, the weaker mark in the game, and kills 77.8 percent, so neither unit gives the Canadiens the edge they usually need on the road.

Montreal could be without two regulars on the back end and up front: Mike Matheson is day-to-day with a lower body injury, and Jake Evans is day-to-day with a hand injury. Keep an eye on whether Matheson plays before placing a bet. Ivan Demidov is on injured reserve with a fractured ankle, and Samuel Montembeault is on injured reserve with a lower body injury. Boston lists James Hagens on injured reserve with a back injury.

The Montreal case is real: the 6-1-1 road record, Caufield's finishing, Hutson moving the puck, and a confirmed starter in Fowler who has been superb. It fails on the building and the defensive gap. Montreal allows 3.06 a night and scores its way out of trouble, and Boston is the team least likely to cooperate with that plan, allowing 2.28 in a building where the Bruins have lost once.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.