Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday
Florida allows 2.95 goals per game and kills 85.9 percent of its penalties, and Detroit arrives in Sunrise without Dylan Larkin and on a four-game losing run. The Red Wings won in this building last week, and Thursday asks what has changed since.
The Matchup
Florida is 10-7-2, scoring 3.16 goals per game and allowing 2.95, a +0.21 differential from a team winning its games on structure while its lineup heals. Matthew Tkachuk leads Florida with 27 points on 23 assists in the Panthers' listing, and Brady Tkachuk has 10 goals in that same listing, so the creation and the net-front finishing both run through one family. Florida is 4-2-0 at home, and the Panthers' home games have a familiar shape: tight, physical, and decided by the team that protects the middle of the ice, which is usually Florida.
Detroit is 7-9-3, scoring 2.58 per game and allowing 3.00 for a -0.42 differential, and the Red Wings arrive on a four-game losing run that started right after their best win of the season, the 5-3 victory in this building on November 3. Viktor Arvidsson leads Detroit with 8 goals, and Lucas Raymond has 18 points on 12 assists. Detroit's attack runs thin after that pair even at full strength, and the Red Wings are not at full strength for this trip.
Key Factors
Availability shapes this game more than any other on the slate. Dylan Larkin is out tonight for Detroit. He is on injured reserve under a suspension designation, with a return date of November 14. Albert Johansson is on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury, and Simon Edvinsson is on injured reserve under a contract dispute designation.
Florida's list is longer and heavier: Aleksander Barkov is on injured reserve with a knee injury, Brad Marchand is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Jonah Gadjovich is on injured reserve after neck surgery. Sandis Vilmanis is out with an undisclosed injury for Florida. Both teams are missing stars. Detroit is missing the player its thin attack can least afford to lose.
Special teams and the crease both lean Florida's way. The Panthers kill 85.9 percent of their penalties, a strong mark, against a Detroit power play converting 21.3 percent, and Florida converts 24.4 percent against a Detroit kill of just 69.5 percent, the weakest unit in the game.
In net, Jacob Markstrom is at a 2.56 goals-against average and a .900 save percentage in 10 games in the Florida listing, while John Gibson is at 3.43 and .866 in 12 games for Detroit. Daniil Tarasov has been far steadier for the Red Wings at 2.10 and .919 in eight games, and if Tarasov starts, Detroit's crease gap narrows a lot. Gibson's season numbers against this Panthers power play are the risk Detroit cannot afford.
The Detroit case is the November 3 win in this building, Raymond's form, and Florida's own injury list, which is as long as any on the slate. It fails on what has happened since: four straight losses, Larkin gone, and a special teams exchange that favors Florida at both ends. A repeat upset needs Detroit's best game. The Panthers need their normal one.
Florida defends its net and kills penalties at a level Detroit cannot reach without Dylan Larkin, and the Panthers are built to control the game this matchup becomes. Take the Florida Panthers moneyline at -170.
Game Information
| Date | Thursday (11/12) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 6:30 PM CT |
| How to Watch | NHL |
| Venue | Amerant Bank Arena |
| Total | 5.5 |
| Moneyline | Florida Panthers -170 |
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