Green Bay Phoenix vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

No. 4 Duke opens at Cameron Indoor Stadium against the team nobody in the Horizon League has caught in three years. Green Bay won 25 games last season, defended as well as almost anyone in the country, and brings back two senior starters who have played in buildings like this. Duke is the better team. The Phoenix are built to make better teams work for it.

The Matchup

Duke opens its season at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Tuesday night with Green Bay in town, and the market has priced it like a formality. The Blue Devils are favored by 28.5 points, the total is 130.5, and Duke is -50,000 on the moneyline. Both teams are 0-0, so last season is the starting point.

Duke finished 27-9, won the ACC regular season and tournament titles, reached the Elite Eight, and scored 74.1 points per game while allowing 59.7. Green Bay finished 25-9, won the Horizon League for the third straight year, and scored 68.4 while allowing 59.1, a tick stingier than Duke. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now, but neither program changed what it is.

Green Bay's two returning starters are the spine of this team. Senior forward Meghan Schultz averaged 12.5 points and 4.3 rebounds last season, shot 55.9 percent from the field, and started all 34 games. Senior guard Maddy Skorupski averaged 11.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.5 assists, came away with 73 steals, and started all 34 games herself.

Schultz and Skorupski carry no injury designations for Tuesday. Last season's leading scorer, Jenna Guyer, is gone, so the Phoenix offense runs through these two now, and Green Bay's habits travel with them. This is a veteran team that holds opponents to 37.5 percent shooting and rarely beats itself.

Duke's best player is the best player in this game by a distance. Junior forward Toby Fournier averaged 17.3 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.2 blocks last season, shot 52.5 percent, and made the Preseason All-ACC team. Forward Delaney Thomas averaged 11.0 points on 60.5 percent shooting, and guard Riley Nelson averaged 9.4, and all three carry no injury designations for Tuesday.

Duke returns three starters from the Elite Eight team, so the Blue Devils are deeper, longer and more talented at every spot. Nobody is arguing the winner here. The argument is the size of it, against a defense that made a habit of dragging good teams into the mud.

Key Factors

Start with what Green Bay does to a game. The Phoenix allowed 59.1 points per game last season and held opponents to 37.5 percent from the field, and the total of 130.5 tells you the market expects a grind more than a track meet. Grinds protect big underdogs.

Every long, empty Duke possession is a possession where the margin cannot grow, and Green Bay forces long possessions for a living, with Skorupski and her 2.1 steals a game at the top of the defense. Duke also turned the ball over 14.8 times a game last season, the one loose thread on a very good team, and a careful visitor that values the ball can turn those mistakes into the kind of easy baskets that keep a spread like this honest.

The honest counterpoint is Duke's rim protection, and it points straight at Green Bay's best scorer. Schultz does her work inside, and Fournier blocked 2.2 shots a game last season for a Duke team that blocked 6.3 a game. If Schultz picks up two early fouls going at Fournier, Green Bay loses the inside scorer its half-court offense leans on, and the Phoenix do not have a second post who bends a defense the same way.

Duke's pressure is the other danger. The Blue Devils came away with 9.2 steals a game, and live-ball turnovers at Cameron Indoor become runouts in front of a crowd that feeds on them. That is how a 12-point game becomes a 30-point game in five minutes.

What keeps Green Bay in it is that this is an opener for Duke too. Rotations are new, shots are rusty, and a favorite laying this many points has to stay sharp deep into a decided game, with bench players on the floor, to get home.

Green Bay's seniors have played a full season of games that stayed in the 60s, and a game in the 60s is exactly the shape that makes 28.5 points feel enormous. Duke should win, and probably win comfortably. Covering this number against this defense, in the first game of the season, asks for more than comfortable.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.