Rhode Island Rams vs West Virginia Mountaineers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

No. 24 West Virginia opens at Hope Coliseum against a Rhode Island team that won 28 games and an Atlantic 10 title last season, then rebuilt its roster with scorers from three other programs. Both teams are almost entirely new. Only one of them is being priced like it.

The Matchup

West Virginia opens its season at Hope Coliseum on Tuesday night with Rhode Island in town, in a matchup of two 28-win teams that both remade themselves over the summer. The Mountaineers are favored by 19.5 points, the total is 128.5, and West Virginia is -2,800 on the moneyline. Both teams are 0-0. Last season West Virginia finished 28-7, won the Big 12 tournament, and scored 76.3 points per game while allowing 58.4.

Rhode Island finished 28-5, won the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament, reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 30 years, and scored 67.3 while allowing just 54.2, the best defensive number in this game. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. In this case, different is the whole story.

West Virginia returns just two players and one starter from the Big 12 champions. The returner who matters is senior guard Gia Cooke, who led the Mountaineers at 15.0 points per game last season, made the All-Big 12 team, and carries no injury designation for Tuesday. Around her, the new Mountaineers can score.

Forward Zahirah Walton averaged 18.1 points at George Mason last season, forward Skylar Forbes averaged 15.5 at Marquette, and guard Alexis Bordas averaged 15.5 at Duquesne. Six players on this roster scored in double figures somewhere last season. The talent is real. It has just never played a game together.

Rhode Island's rebuild has the same shape. Guard Delanie Hill averaged 14.0 points at UAlbany last season and shot 37.1 percent from three. Forward Queen Ikhiuwu averaged 13.2 points and 7.6 rebounds at Wofford, and forward Amaya Stewart averaged 12.2 at UAlbany.

The holdover is senior guard Sophia Vital, who averaged 7.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.9 steals for the Rams last season and knows exactly how Tammi Reiss wants to defend. Hill, Ikhiuwu, Stewart and Vital carry no injury designations for Tuesday. Rhode Island is not a 28-win team anymore, but it is not a pushover either. It is a collection of proven scorers wearing new uniforms, which is also a fair description of the favorite.

Key Factors

The game turns on West Virginia's pressure, because that is what the Mountaineers are. Their teams under Mark Kellogg press for forty minutes, and last season's group came away with 11.2 steals a game. A rebuilt Rhode Island backcourt, playing its first real game together, in a loud road building, is exactly the kind of opponent that pressure eats alive.

If Hill and Vital cannot get the Rams into their offense, the turnovers stack up, the crowd gets going, and a 19.5-point spread starts to look small. That is the honest counterpoint, and it is a strong one.

The other side of the pressure is what it costs West Virginia. The Mountaineers turned the ball over 15.5 times a game themselves last season, the loosest number in this matchup, and a new rotation learning a pressing system tends to give the ball back as often as it takes it early in the year. Rhode Island also defends in the half court as well as anyone.

The Rams allowed 54.2 points per game last season, and while the personnel changed, the coach and the scheme did not, and Vital gives the defense a returning guard who guards the ball the way Reiss demands. A total of 128.5 says the market expects a slower game than West Virginia wants, and slower games shrink margins.

Foul trouble is the other swing, and it cuts at Rhode Island first. The Rams lean on Hill and Vital to handle the ball against the press, and if either sits, the press gets much harder to beat. West Virginia spreads its scoring across six double-figure scorers, so one Mountaineer sitting changes very little.

But depth is a February advantage more than a November one. On opening night, with two rebuilt rosters and a favorite laying 19.5 at home, the team getting the points is the one whose defense travels. Rhode Island's does.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.