Houston Christian Huskies vs South Dakota Coyotes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

South Dakota is favored at home despite losing twice in its own building already, because its scoring has been loud. Houston Christian has quietly won twice, once on the road, while defending better than anyone in this matchup. Something in that picture does not add up.

The Matchup

Houston Christian visits South Dakota on Tuesday evening at the Sanford Coyote Sports Center in Vermillion, on Summit League Network, with South Dakota a 2.5-point favorite, a total of 156.5, and the Coyotes priced at -142 on the moneyline against Houston Christian at +120.

South Dakota is 1-2, and all three games were at home. The Coyotes beat Mount Marty 95-57, then lost 102-94 to Northern Kentucky and 87-85 to Cal State Fullerton in this building. They have scored 91.3 points a game this season and allowed 82.0. Vince Buzelis leads South Dakota in every major category, at 20.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists a game, which tells you both how good he has been and how much the Coyotes ask of him.

Houston Christian is 2-0. The Huskies beat Louisiana Christian 108-45 at home, then won 74-67 at Western Illinois, a genuine road win against a real opponent. They have scored 91.0 points a game and allowed 56.0. Jonas Nichols leads Houston Christian at 15.5 points a game, Mambourou Mara leads the Huskies at 7.5 rebounds a game, and Max Alexander leads them at 3.5 assists a game.

Last season pulls the Huskies' hot start back toward earth, and it is worth saying plainly. Houston Christian went 12-20 last season, scored 67.1 points a game and allowed 72.2, while South Dakota went 16-16, scored 79.6 and allowed 80.2. The Coyotes were the better program a year ago. What has changed so far is narrower and more specific: South Dakota has defended badly in three straight home games, and Houston Christian, whatever last season says, just went on the road and won a grind of a game at Western Illinois.

Key Factors

South Dakota's defense is the crack Houston Christian walks through. Allowing 82.0 points a game is one thing, losing twice at home while scoring 94 and 85 is another: the Coyotes are scoring plenty and still losing, because they cannot string stops together. Houston Christian allowed 45 and 67 in its two games, and a visiting team that defends like that does not need to win a shootout to cover a short number.

Buzelis carrying every category is a strength with a fault line in it. He leads South Dakota in points, rebounds and assists, so the Huskies can build their whole defensive plan around one player, send help at him and make the Coyotes' second and third options win the game. Houston Christian spreads its production across Nichols, Mara and Alexander, which gives it more ways to survive a cold night from any one player.

The counterpoint is real, and it starts with last season. South Dakota scored 79.6 points a game a year ago and has scored 91.3 so far, at home, where its crowd and shooting background are familiar. Houston Christian's defensive numbers lean on a game against Louisiana Christian, and if the Coyotes push this game toward the total of 156.5 and turn it into a race, the Huskies' half-court offense could be the one that stalls late.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.