Northern Kentucky Norse vs South Dakota Coyotes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Northern Kentucky won a physical opener at home on Monday and now has to win in Vermillion on one day of rest, against a South Dakota team whose starters barely broke a sweat in theirs.

The Matchup

South Dakota hosts Northern Kentucky in Vermillion on Wednesday night, and the market has the visitor favored. Northern Kentucky is a 2.5-point road favorite at the Sanford Coyote Sports Center, with a total of 159.5, on the Summit League Network. Both teams won their openers on Monday, in very different ways.

Northern Kentucky finished 20-14 last season in the Horizon League, scoring 83.1 points a game and allowing 77.5. South Dakota finished 16-16 in the Summit League, scoring 79.6 and allowing 80.2. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Monday gave a first look at the new versions. The Norse beat UTEP 84-76 at home behind their frontcourt. Willie Foster scored 24 points with 10 rebounds, and Noah Pagotto added 19 points and 12 rebounds. Point guard Eric Acker scored 16 with 5 assists, though he also turned it over 6 times.

South Dakota's opener was a walkover, a 95-57 win over Mount Marty, an NAIA school, and it should be weighed accordingly. Still, the shape of the team showed. Jahni Summers scored 17 points in 18 minutes, Vince Buzelis had 14 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists, and Kajus Kublickas added 14 off the bench. Fourteen Coyotes played and nobody logged more than 19 minutes, which matters on a two-day turnaround.

Key Factors

Start with the legs. Northern Kentucky played a real game on Monday, a physical eight-point win over a Division I opponent, and now travels to Vermillion on one day of rest. South Dakota's starters barely broke a sweat in a 38-point win over an NAIA team. Early in the season, when conditioning is still being built, that gap in workload is a real thing, and it usually shows late, which is exactly when a 2.5-point game gets decided.

Then look at the ball. Acker's 6 turnovers against UTEP came against a defense that was not built to pressure him, and South Dakota's guards took care of it on Monday, with Buzelis handing out 6 assists against 2 turnovers. Northern Kentucky's defense also has a leak in it. The Norse allowed 77.5 points a game last season and gave up 76 to UTEP, and South Dakota, which averaged 79.6 itself last season, has enough scorers to punish a tired defense at home.

The counterpoint deserves its weight. Northern Kentucky is the more proven team, and its frontcourt just produced 43 points and 22 rebounds against UTEP. South Dakota's opener proved almost nothing, because Mount Marty is not a Division I test, and the Coyotes allowed 80.2 points a game last season, the worse defensive number in this matchup by a distance. If Foster and Pagotto own the paint the way they did on Monday, the road favorite wins and the home crowd goes home quiet.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.