Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Idaho State plays its third straight road game on Sunday, this one at altitude in Colorado Springs, still looking for its first win. Air Force waits at Clune Arena with a split week of its own to explain.

The Matchup

Idaho State visits Air Force on Sunday afternoon at Clune Arena in Colorado Springs, on MW+, with Air Force a 5.5-point favorite, a total of 160.5, and the Falcons priced at -258 on the moneyline against Idaho State at +210. Air Force is 1-1 out of the Mountain West Conference and Idaho State is 0-2 out of the Big Sky Conference, and this is a game between two programs trying to climb out of bad seasons, with the visitor carrying the heavier week.

Idaho State has opened with two road losses that were never close: 94-58 at Utah State and 93-62 at Wyoming. The Bengals are scoring 60.0 points a game and allowing 93.5, and the offense runs through one player. MaCarhy Morris scored 15 points at Utah State and 17 at Wyoming, and he is the only Bengal to reach double figures in both games.

Idaho State shot 35 percent in the first loss and 31 percent in the second, and was beaten badly on the glass in both, managing 25 rebounds at Utah State and 27 at Wyoming. Across the full season last year the Bengals went 13-20, scoring 74.52 points a game and allowing 76.15, so this season's scoring start sits well below their own standard.

Air Force split its week in the opposite order. The Falcons lost 102-71 at Wright State, then came home and beat Calumet St. Joseph 107-58, a lower-division visitor, and that win needs its label: it proves the Falcons can run their offense against an overmatched team and little more.

Kam Sanders scored 17 points at Wright State and 21 in the home win, and Grant Best scored 17 in both games, adding 7 steals against Calumet St. Joseph. Lucas Hobin added 20 points in the home win. Across the full season last year Air Force went 3-29, scoring 61.53 points a game and allowing 79.88. Nobody in this game owns a proud recent record. The question is which set of problems is worse right now.

Key Factors

Idaho State's offense is the first problem, and it is severe. Sixty points a game, one reliable scorer, and team shooting of 35 and 31 percent in its two games means the Bengals start every possession needing Morris to create something against a set defense.

Air Force defends with pressure at home, and even discounting the level of the Calumet St. Joseph game, 21 steals in that win describe a team that hunts the ball. A visiting offense with one creator, playing its third road game in six days, is the exact profile that pressure breaks open in the second half.

The glass is the second factor, and it is just as lopsided. Idaho State has been beaten badly on the boards in both of its games, which turns every defensive stop into a negotiation and every miss into a second chance for the opponent.

Air Force does not need to shoot well to build a margin if it keeps winning extra possessions at home. The setting adds to it: Clune Arena sits at altitude in Colorado Springs, and a thin, tired road team feels that in the final ten minutes, on closeouts and on the defensive boards where the Bengals are already losing.

The counterpoint is Air Force's own Division I evidence, which is one ugly game. The Falcons allowed 102 points at Wright State, where the Raiders scored at will, and a defense that leaky can let anybody hang around.

Idaho State's Morris is a steady scorer who has produced in two hard road gyms already, and Joven Dulay scored 16 points off the bench at Wyoming. If Air Force defends the way it did in Dayton rather than the way it did at home, the Bengals stay inside this number and the favorite's case, built mostly on the visitor's failures, gets thin in a hurry.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.