Iowa vs Minnesota Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

AP No. 15 Iowa lays 7 in Minneapolis in the week's lowest-total game at 40.5. The Hawkeyes allow 14.5 points per game; Minnesota's passing game is its path to an upset.

01The Matchup

The battle for Floyd of Rosedale comes with the lowest total on the ranked board, 40.5, and AP No. 15 Iowa in the AP Top 25 would not have it any other way. The Hawkeyes are 5-1, allow 14.5 points per game, rush for 194.0 yards per game at a bruising 6.1 yards per carry and have given the ball away only 3 times all season. Running back Kamari Moulton leads the ground game, Jeremy Hecklinski led Iowa's passing in its last outing, and the defense has 19 sacks.

Minnesota is 4-2 and attacks differently: quarterback Drake Lindsey throws for the bulk of a 236.5 passing yards per game offense, running back Darius Taylor leads the rushing, and the Golden Gophers score 28.8 points per game while allowing 21.8. A rivalry, a bronze pig, two defenses that tackle and a total barely above 40: this is Big Ten football in its purest form, and a full touchdown is a serious price inside it.

02Key Factors

First, Iowa's run game against Minnesota's front. At 6.1 yards per carry, the Hawkeyes do not need their quarterback to win this game; they need Moulton and the line to keep producing first downs, and Minnesota allows 21.8 points per game to better rushing teams than most.

Second, Minnesota's passing is the underdog's real weapon: 236.5 yards per game is the stronger passing attack in this game by a distance, and Lindsey against a defense geared to stop the run will get his shots, especially to receiver Jalen Smith, his leading target last week. Third, game script math favors the home team at this price.

In a 40.5-total rivalry game, seven points represents a huge fraction of the expected scoring, and Minnesota has the home crowd, the trophy motivation and a quarterback capable of one fourth-quarter drive to get inside the number or win outright. Iowa's 3 giveaways all season say the Hawkeyes will not beat themselves, which is why they are favored at all.

03The Pick

Take Minnesota +7. Our numbers project Iowa by 2, with a projected score of Iowa 21, Minnesota 19. Iowa is the better, cleaner team, and its formula of defense, rushing and zero mistakes deserves its AP No. 15 ranking. But laying a full touchdown on the road in a rivalry game with a 40.5 total asks that formula to produce a margin it rarely produces, against a home team with the better passing quarterback and a 28.8 points per game offense.

Minnesota's defense has to survive the ground game for four quarters, and if it does, Lindsey gets a chance late with the game and the cover in his hands. Expect a one-score finish in Minneapolis, which is exactly what a +7 ticket needs.

Before you go, take a look at our thoughts on who covers in Boise State vs Washington State.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.