Iowa Hawkeyes vs UConn Huskies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 2 UConn lost at Michigan on Thursday for its first defeat of the season, and No. 10 Iowa arrives in Storrs at 2-0 after two home routs. Sunday at Gampel Pavilion, the Huskies are favored by 13.5, and the question is how much of Iowa's fast start survives its first real road test.

The Matchup

Iowa's first two games were a rehearsal, and both audiences were small. The Hawkeyes beat Towson 73-45 on Monday and Eastern Illinois 80-39 on Thursday, both at home, and the numbers from those afternoons are loud: 76.5 points scored and 42.0 allowed per game, 52 rebounds against Towson and 44 against Eastern Illinois, and 27 turnovers forced on Thursday.

Dani Carnegie scored 21 against Towson and 12 against Eastern Illinois. McKenna Woliczko scored 10 with 8 rebounds against Towson and then 22 on Thursday, and Ava Heiden added 15 points and 8 rebounds in the second game. Carnegie, Woliczko and Heiden carry no injury designations for Sunday.

UConn has already played the game Iowa has not. The Huskies, ranked No. 2, opened by beating Cornell 100-35 at home, then lost 77-66 at Michigan on Thursday, and the loss is the most useful film either team owns. Sarah Strong scored 19 points with 8 steals against Cornell, then scored 13 with 8 rebounds at Michigan before fouling out. Jovana Popovic scored 19 against Cornell and a team-high 25 at Michigan in 36 minutes. UConn shot 42 percent in Ann Arbor and turned the ball over 19 times.

Last season is still the deeper record for two teams with four combined games this season, and it describes a real gap. UConn finished 38-1, scoring 86.8 points per game and allowing 50.4, the stingiest defense in the country. Iowa finished 27-7, scoring 76.2 and allowing 65.2. The Hawkeyes have not seen anything like UConn's defense yet, and UConn has already been beaten by a top five team on the road. Sunday at Gampel Pavilion is where those two facts meet.

Key Factors

Start with the glass, because it is Iowa's clearest path to staying close. The Hawkeyes pulled down 52 and 44 rebounds in their two games, with Woliczko and Heiden doing the heavy work inside, and second chances are how an underdog shortens a game in a building like this. UConn does not need to shoot well to build a lead if Iowa's misses become one-and-done possessions, and the Huskies held Cornell to 35 points on 25 percent shooting in this building on Monday.

The second fight is Iowa's ball security against UConn's hands. Strong had 8 steals by herself against Cornell, and Iowa gave the ball away 16 times against Towson, a team with nothing like UConn's length. Carnegie is Iowa's engine, and she will see UConn's best perimeter defender on every possession. If she is turned into a passer first, Iowa's offense slows to a walk and the home crowd starts to smell a run.

The honest counterpoint is that UConn at home after a loss is one of the hardest spots in the sport. The Huskies were beaten at Michigan because they shot poorly and fouled, and Strong watching the end of a game from the bench is not a scene this program repeats often. If UConn's pressure lands early and Iowa's young guards start giving the ball away in the backcourt, this can pass the number by halftime. Iowa's case depends on surviving the first ten minutes and making UConn play half-court defense all afternoon.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.