UConn Huskies vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 4 UConn visits Columbus for another ranked road test, and No. 17 Ohio State has won its first three home games by 47, 67 and 34 points. The Huskies are favored by 9.5 in a building where the home team has not played a close minute yet.

The Matchup

Ohio State has turned the Schottenstein Center into a layup line for three straight games. The Buckeyes are 3-0, all at home, beating UIC 81-34, Central Michigan 103-36 and Mercyhurst 91-57, scoring 91.7 points per game and allowing 42.3. Jaloni Cambridge has been the engine of it, scoring 22, 23 and 17 points with 18 assists across the three games, and Elsa Lemmila has scored 15, 15 and 19 while making 18 of her 19 shots and blocking 8. Cambridge and Lemmila carry no injury designations for Thursday.

UConn's first week has been a sterner education. The Huskies are 2-1, routing Cornell 100-35, losing 77-66 at Michigan, then beating Iowa 91-79 at home on Sunday, scoring 85.7 points per game and allowing 63.7. Sarah Strong has scored 71 points in three games, and 39 of them came against Iowa, on 15 of 26 shooting with 5 three-pointers and 10 rebounds. Jovana Popovic scored 25 at Michigan and has 54 points for the week. Strong and Popovic carry no injury designations for Thursday.

Last season is the deeper file on both programs. UConn went 38-1, scoring 86.8 points per game and allowing 50.4, and Ohio State went 27-8, scoring 81.3 and allowing 66.3. The players carrying UConn now are not the ones who built that record, though: Strong and Popovic are the engine this time, and the Huskies have already lost once on the road. Ohio State's jump has come with Cambridge running everything and Lemmila finishing everything, but it has come against UIC, Central Michigan and Mercyhurst, a softer road than the one UConn has already traveled.

Key Factors

The road is the first factor, and UConn has already failed one of these tests. The Huskies lost by 11 at Michigan, and Columbus on a Thursday night is the same kind of building: loud, ranked, and smelling blood against a brand name. Ohio State has not trailed in a second half yet this season, and a home underdog that starts fast in its own gym tends to stay in the game.

The second factor is Lemmila's finishing against UConn's frontcourt. A center making 18 of 19 shots is partly a schedule story, but 27 rebounds and 8 blocks in three games is a presence UConn has to account for on every possession, and it changes how the Huskies can guard Cambridge's drives. UConn's counter is real: Strong and Blanca Quinonez have combined for 17 steals in three games, and the Huskies' pressure can turn a careful offense sloppy in a hurry.

The honest counterpoint is Strong herself. She is the best player on the floor, her 39 against Iowa came four nights ago, and if she gets Lemmila into foul trouble, Ohio State's rim protection thins out fast and UConn's drives start ending at the rim instead of the free-throw line. UConn has also played in a hundred gyms like this one. The bet is that Ohio State's balance, six players between 25 and 62 points for the week, and its home floor keep this inside the number all night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.