Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - UFC 334

Melquizael Costa, the No. 13 featherweight, moves up a division on a run of three straight wins, including a five-round decision over a top-six opponent. Jared Gordon is 37, fighting in his home city, and throwing more volume than the favorite.

The Matchup

Melquizael Costa arrives as the No. 13 featherweight in the world, fighting up at lightweight, and his recent form is the best of his career. In May he beat Arnold Allen, who sits sixth at featherweight, over the full five rounds. Before that came first-round knockouts of Ige in February and Charriere in December. He is 26-7 with nine knockouts, nine decisions and eight submissions, eleven first-round finishes, and at 29 he is in his prime.

Jared Gordon is the early prelim's resident veteran problem. He is 37 and 21-9, a New York native fighting at Madison Square Garden, and his last three fights are wins: a first-round submission of Jim Miller in May, a third-round knockout of Garcia last September, and a first-round knockout of Moises before that. He throws 5.57 significant strikes a minute, more than Costa's 4.29, connects at 54 percent, and averages 1.91 takedown attempts per fifteen minutes, a pressure game that has made a career of ruining prospects' nights.

Key Factors

Costa's case is class and momentum. Beating a top-six featherweight over five rounds is a credential nobody else on the early prelims owns, and his finishing record says the move up in weight is not about survival: he ends fights standing and on the mat. Gordon's takedown defense sits at 60 percent and his defense has never been the strength of his game, absorbing 4.11 significant strikes a minute, which is a dangerous allowance against a man with eleven first-round finishes.

Gordon's routes are real, though, and they keep this from being a coronation. He out-throws Costa, he will press the wrestling that Costa defends at only 51 percent, and a featherweight moving up has to carry a bigger man's clinch for fifteen minutes. Costa has also been beaten seven times, and Gordon, at home, with his career's late surge behind him, is exactly the kind of veteran who turns a prospect's showcase into a grind. We make Costa the likely winner. We do not make him a certainty.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.