Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Kansas State travels to Boulder with the far more reliable ground game and the far cleaner turnover profile. Colorado can throw the ball, but Colorado keeps giving games away.

The Matchup

Kansas State's identity travels well to Folsom Field. Kansas State averages 32.9 points per game, runs for 217.6 yards per game at 5.8 yards per carry, and converts 54.5 percent on third down. That combination lets Kansas State control tempo without needing a huge passing day.

Jacob Knuth completed 26 of 41 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown at Arizona State last week, and Derrick Salley Jr. caught 6 passes for 63 yards in that 28-17 loss. Colorado's passing game is more dangerous. Isaac Wilson threw for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns at Oklahoma State, completing 19 of 27 passes, and Joseph Williams caught 9 passes for 135 yards.

Williams has 46 catches for 643 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. Colorado averages 266.6 passing yards per game, well above Kansas State's 220.4. The problem for Colorado is everything around that passing. Colorado averages only 20.1 points per game despite the yardage, allows 30.1 points per game, and has committed 16 giveaways.

Kansas State allows 21.1 points per game. The setup is simple to picture. Wilson and Williams can move Colorado between the twenties. Kansas State has to prove Colorado can finish drives and stop the run on the same afternoon.

Key Factors

Colorado's ball security is the largest single number in this matchup. Colorado has 16 giveaways, and Colorado quarterbacks have thrown 10 interceptions. Wilson threw 2 interceptions at Oklahoma State even in a productive 280-yard game. Kansas State has only 6 giveaways and Kansas State quarterbacks have thrown only 3 interceptions.

Over a full game in Boulder, that gap tends to show up as field position and as one or two extra Kansas State possessions. JaQuail Smith gives Colorado some rushing balance, with 298 yards for the season, but Smith managed 39 yards on 13 carries at Oklahoma State and Colorado averages 3.7 yards per carry as a team. Kansas State's 5.8 yards per carry is a different level of rushing efficiency.

The counterpoint is Wilson's form last week and Williams's ability to stress a defense downfield. If Wilson repeats a 10.4 yards per attempt game without the interceptions, Colorado can score enough at home to win outright. Kansas State also lost at Arizona State last week and lost 35-16 to Houston earlier this month, so Kansas State is not immune to a flat road performance. Colorado needs clean football, something Colorado has rarely produced.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.