Kansas vs TCU Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Kansas and TCU are both 3-4 in Fort Worth, and the styles could not be more different. Kansas rushes for 207.3 yards per game behind a workhorse back, and TCU allows just 13.9 points per game behind the stingiest defense either team has faced this month.
The Matchup
Dylan Edwards gives Kansas a clear identity, and TCU has to take that identity away to win comfortably. Edwards carried 30 times for 156 yards in the 25-24 win over Baylor, and Edwards has 531 yards and 4 touchdowns on 105 carries this season.
Kansas rushes for 207.3 yards per game at 4.9 yards per carry with 14 rushing touchdowns, and that ground game sets up Isaiah Marshall's play-action shots. Marshall threw 2 touchdown passes against Baylor and has 1,506 yards with 11 touchdowns this season, and Nik McMillan turned just 2 catches into 66 yards and a touchdown in that game, pushing McMillan to 466 yards and 5 touchdowns.
TCU allows 13.9 points per game, an elite number, and TCU held Baylor to 6 points two weeks ago. Kansas will not run wild. The Jayhawks need Edwards to grind out enough first downs to keep TCU's pass rush honest and keep this game in the fourth quarter, where Kansas just proved against Baylor that Kansas can win a one-point game.
Key Factors
Jaden Craig is TCU's counter, and Craig's volume passing is a real threat to Kansas. Craig threw 33 of 47 for 372 yards against West Virginia and has 2,066 yards with 11 touchdowns this season for an offense averaging 295.1 passing yards per game at 8.6 yards per attempt.
Kansas allows 24.0 points per game and has taken only 2 interceptions, so Craig will find completions, and if Craig turns those yards into touchdowns instead of field goals, TCU pulls away and Kansas's run game becomes a liability while chasing. That is the honest risk.
TCU's own weakness keeps Kansas live, though, because TCU rushes for only 110.3 yards per game at 3.3 yards per carry and has scored just 8 rushing touchdowns, making the Horned Frogs one-dimensional when Kansas drops into coverage. TCU has also given the ball away 12 times. Kansas protects drives with Edwards, owns 13 takeaways, and has the better rushing attack by nearly 100 yards per game, which is a strong profile for a road underdog asked to stay within a touchdown.
Editorial pick: Kansas +5.5 at -110. Edwards ran for 156 yards on 30 carries against Baylor and Kansas rushes for 207.3 yards per game, while TCU manages only 3.3 yards per carry and cannot lean on a ground game to close. Craig beats this pick if Craig converts 372-yard passing volume into early touchdowns and forces Kansas to abandon Edwards. Take Kansas +5.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 3:30 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | FS1 |
| VENUE | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth |
| SPREAD | TCU -5.5 |
| TOTAL | 47.5 |
| MONEYLINE | TCU -205 |
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