Northwestern vs Oregon Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Northwestern is No. 20 in the AP Top 25 at 6-1 and travels to Autzen Stadium to face a 4-3 Oregon team that has lost two of its last three, including 21-10 at Illinois last week. Northwestern has won three straight by a combined 111-49, and Oregon's offense has gone quiet at the wrong time.

The Matchup

Northwestern brings the cleanest offense in this game to Eugene, and Aidan Chiles is the center of it. Chiles has completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 1,617 yards with 12 touchdowns and only 1 interception, and Chiles went 19 of 25 for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 42-14 win over Rutgers. Caleb Komolafe ran 13 times for 150 yards at 11.5 yards per carry against Rutgers, and Komolafe has 551 yards and 5 touchdowns this season.

Griffin Wilde caught 9 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown in that same game and leads Northwestern with 615 yards and 4 touchdowns. Northwestern scores 34.7 points per game, rushes for 204.6 yards per game at 5.2 yards per carry, and has given the ball away only 3 times all season. Oregon allows 20.7 points per game, a solid defense, but Oregon's offense has to keep pace for the Ducks to be favored here, and Oregon managed 10 points at Illinois and 17 against Nebraska in the last two games.

Key Factors

Oregon's hope is that Autzen Stadium and Jordon Davison change the script. Davison has 422 yards and 7 touchdowns, and Davison ran 14 times for 92 yards and a touchdown at Illinois. Dakorien Moore caught 9 passes for 70 yards in that loss and has 417 yards with 4 touchdowns this season.

Oregon throws for 277.7 yards per game, the best passing number in this matchup, and a return to that form at home beats Northwestern, especially if Oregon's defense, which has taken 9 interceptions, finally forces Chiles into a mistake. Chiles has thrown 1 interception all season, though, and Northwestern has 3 giveaways total against Oregon's 12, a turnover gap that matters in a game lined this close.

Northwestern also defends at 16.6 points allowed per game, better than Oregon's 20.7, and Northwestern converts 46.4 percent of third downs against Oregon's 35.1 percent. Oregon wins the talent argument on paper. Northwestern has been the more reliable team for a month, and reliability travels.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.