UConn Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Seven months after Michigan beat UConn 69-63 for the national championship, they meet again on a neutral floor in Boston. UConn is ranked fourth and Michigan 16th, both are 1-0, and Michigan's starting center is questionable after missing the opener with the flu.

The Matchup

UConn is a 5.5-point favorite over Michigan at TD Garden in Boston on Friday night, with a total of 146.5, on TNT. The game is part of the Hall of Fame Series Boston, it is played on a neutral floor, and it is a rematch of last season's national championship game, which Michigan won 69-63 in April.

Michigan finished 37-3 last season, scoring 87.3 points per game and allowing 69.5, and won the national title. UConn finished 34-6, scoring 76.6 and allowing 65.2, and lost that final. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. UConn is ranked fourth in the AP poll, Michigan is ranked 16th, and both teams won their openers on Monday.

UConn beat Gardner-Webb 86-46 on Monday. Braylon Mullins, back after a knee issue cost him part of the preseason, scored 20 points with four three-pointers. Mullins averaged 12.0 points a game as a freshman last season, made 72 three-pointers, the second most by a freshman in program history, and hit the 35-foot shot that beat Duke and sent UConn to the Final Four.

Nik Khamenia, a transfer from Duke, scored 14. Na'jai Hines, a Seton Hall transfer who led the Big East in blocks last season at 2.2 a game, scored 12. Colben Landrew, the Big East Preseason Freshman of the Year, added 11 off the bench.

Silas Demary Jr., the Big East Preseason Player of the Year, had 5 points with 8 rebounds and 8 assists; he averaged 10.1 points and a league-best 5.9 assists last season. UConn plays this season without Solo Ball. Ball is out for the season after offseason wrist surgery. He averaged 12.8 points a game last season and was the Huskies' third-leading scorer.

Michigan beat Oakland 84-68 on Monday in its first game under head coach Mike Boynton Jr., who took over when Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks. Roddy Gayle Jr. and Trey McKenney scored 17 points each. McKenney averaged 9.9 points a game off the bench last season, led Michigan with 68 three-pointers, and hit the late three that finished UConn in the title game.

Elliot Cadeau, the Most Outstanding Player of last spring's Final Four, had 7 points and 6 assists. Cadeau scored 19 points in the title game against UConn and averaged 10.5 points with a team-high 5.9 assists last season. J.P. Estrella, a Tennessee transfer who averaged 10.0 points a game there last season, started and put up 15 points and 12 rebounds.

Michigan played that opener without its starting center. Moustapha Thiam is questionable to play Friday night. The 7-foot-2 transfer from Cincinnati, who averaged 12.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks last season, missed the Oakland game with the flu, and no update on his status has been published since. Keep an eye on whether Thiam plays before placing a bet.

Key Factors

The first factor is the one April settled and November has to argue again: Michigan's guards against UConn's defense. Cadeau and McKenney are the returning backcourt from a 37-3 championship team, they combined for 24 points and 8 assists on Monday, and Cadeau was the best player on the floor in the championship game.

UConn's counter is Demary, a first-team All-Big East guard who also made the league's All-Defense team, in front of a defense that allowed 65.2 points a game last season. If Demary turns this into a half-court wrestling match, UConn's depth can wear Michigan down over forty minutes. If Cadeau gets Michigan playing at last season's speed, when the Wolverines scored 87.3 points a game, the pace favors the underdog.

The second factor is size, and it swings on Thiam. Michigan lost its entire starting frontcourt to the NBA draft, where Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara were all picked in the top 12 after averaging 15.1, 13.1 and 12.1 points a game. Estrella's double-double on Monday was a good first answer, but Oakland outrebounded Michigan 44-42, took 21 offensive rebounds, and Michigan shot 7-of-34 from three in that game.

UConn's frontcourt is new too, with Hines and Khamenia replacing first-round picks of its own, and the Huskies return just 41 percent of their scoring. Neither team is the team it was in April, which is exactly why a championship rematch in November is priced on reputation as much as on evidence.

The counterpoint is UConn's fouling, because it helped decide the title game. UConn sent opponents to the free throw line 22.0 times a game last season and fouled on 23.9 percent of defensive plays, and Michigan shot 25-of-28 at the line in the championship game.

A team that fouls that much hands a good free-throw shooting underdog free points in a close game, and McKenney shot 89.5 percent at the line last season. The risk to the pick is plainer. UConn is the deeper and better defensive team, Dan Hurley has had seven months to coach against this exact matchup, and if Thiam sits again, Michigan has no real answer for Hines inside. The points are the cushion for all of that.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.