North Dakota State Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
Saint Mary's survived an overtime scare at home on Monday night, with its point guard playing 43 minutes. A fresh North Dakota State team that won 27 games last season is next through the door in Moraga.
The Matchup
Saint Mary's is a 12.5-point home favorite over North Dakota State at University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga on Wednesday night, with a total of 149.5, on ESPN+. On paper this looks like a buy game. The team flying in won 27 games last season.
Saint Mary's finished 27-6 last season, scoring 77.3 points a game and allowing 64.5, the best defensive number in the West Coast Conference and one of the best in the country. North Dakota State finished 27-8 in the Summit League, scoring 80.3 and allowing 70.2. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. Monday's openers are the fresher evidence, and they point in opposite directions.
Saint Mary's survived Illinois State 90-85 in overtime at home. Mantas Juzenas scored 20 points with 11 rebounds in 38 minutes, Thomas Ndong added 18 off the bench, and Vangelis Zougris scored 16 on perfect 7-of-7 shooting. Point guard Joshua Dent played 43 minutes.
North Dakota State, meanwhile, coasted past Crookston 90-59. Andy Stefonowicz scored 18 points with 7 assists and four three-pointers, Melvin Bell Jr. added 16, and Rob Diaz III had 12 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. No Bison starter played more than 28 minutes.
Key Factors
The minutes are the first factor, and they are not close. Saint Mary's starters carried an overtime load on Monday night, with Dent on the floor for 43 minutes and Juzenas for 38, and the Gaels get one day to recover before doing it again. North Dakota State's rotation stayed in the twenties in a game that was over early. In the second half on Wednesday, one team should have its legs and the other may not, and a 12.5-point favorite that fades late is how big underdogs cash.
The second factor is that North Dakota State is built to bother Saint Mary's. The Bison scored 80.3 points a game last season and put five players in double figures on Monday, with Stefonowicz pulling the strings at 7 assists against 3 turnovers. A team that can score from several spots forces the Gaels to defend everyone, and Saint Mary's just gave up 85 points to Illinois State in this building.
The counterpoint is the Gaels' identity. That 64.5 points allowed last season was no accident, and Randy Bennett teams have spent two decades slowing visiting scorers to a walk in this gym. Illinois State's 85 came in an overtime game with a hot guard, and Saint Mary's still won. If the Gaels drag this game into the sixties and North Dakota State's threes stop falling, the favorite can absolutely cover late. The Bison need their pace and their legs to both show up.
Saint Mary's is the better program and should win in its own gym, but the Gaels just played an overtime game with their starters on the floor deep into Monday night, and the team coming in is fresh, deep, and used to winning. That is too much to ask a favorite to overcome by this kind of margin. Take North Dakota State Bison +12.5 at -118.
Game Information
| Date | Wednesday (11/4) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 9:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Venue | University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga |
| Spread | Saint Mary's Gaels -12.5 |
| Total | 149.5 |
| Moneyline | Saint Mary's Gaels -750 |
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