Louisville Cardinals vs Memphis Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 3

No. 10 Louisville is scoring 95.5 points a game and winning the glass by a mile, and Memphis has allowed 89.7 a game heading into a Sunday matinee at FedExForum.

The Matchup

Louisville visits Memphis on Sunday at FedExForum in Memphis, on ESPN, with Louisville favored by 9.5 points, a total of 163.5, and the Cardinals priced at -355 on the moneyline. Louisville is 2-0 and ranked No. 10 in the AP Top 25 out of the Atlantic Coast Conference. Memphis is 2-1 in the American Conference and gets its ranked visitor at home, where the Tigers have played their best basketball so far.

The early numbers sit heavily on Louisville's side. The Cardinals score 95.5 points a game and allow 63.5 this season, and they rebound at 50.5 a game with 19.0 assists against just 8.5 turnovers.

Memphis scores 83.3 a game but allows 89.7, the softest defensive number in this matchup by a distance, and the Tigers rebound at only 32.3 a game. Last season Louisville went 24-11 while scoring 84.3 and allowing 72.5, and Memphis went 13-19 while scoring 75.2 and allowing 76.7, so the gap between these programs did not appear out of nowhere this month.

Memphis does own the best individual scorer in the game. Jayden Reid averages 23.0 points and 3.3 assists a game, and Corneilous Williams leads the Tigers at 6.0 rebounds a game. Louisville spreads its production around instead: Adrian Wooley leads at 13.5 points a game, Alvaro Folgueiras adds 4.5 assists a game, and Karter Knox pulls down 8.5 rebounds a game. Wooley, Folgueiras, and Knox all carry no injury designations, and Reid and Williams carry none for Memphis either.

Key Factors

The glass decides how long Memphis can hang around. Louisville at 50.5 rebounds a game against Memphis at 32.3 is an enormous edge, and it feeds everything the Cardinals do: extra possessions, kick-outs against a scrambling defense, and fewer chances for Reid to play against a set floor. A Memphis team that already allows 89.7 points a game cannot afford to defend second and third shots all afternoon.

Ball security tilts the same way. Louisville moves the ball at 19.0 assists a game and turns it over 8.5 times, while Memphis records just 10.0 assists a game, so the Tigers' offense leans on Reid creating late in the clock. Louisville can throw size and fresh legs at Reid in waves, and every empty Memphis trip runs straight into that rebounding edge at the other end.

The honest counterpoint is the building and the total. A 163.5 total says this game runs, and a running game at home gives Memphis its best path: Reid hot early, the crowd up, and Louisville's young rotation sped up into mistakes.

Memphis also shoots 38 percent from three this season, better than Louisville's 30 percent, so a hot shooting afternoon keeps the Tigers inside the number. Louisville's two wins both came at home, and this is the Cardinals' first road test, which is exactly where a double-digit favorite can get casual.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.