Loyola Maryland Greyhounds vs Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Loyola Maryland and Mount St. Mary's each scored in the fifties against power conference opponents on Monday, and they meet in Emmitsburg still looking for a first win. Somebody's offense has to show up at Knott Arena.

The Matchup

Loyola Maryland visits Mount St. Mary's on Friday evening at Knott Arena in Emmitsburg, on ESPN+, with Mount St. Mary's a 5.5-point favorite and a total of 150.5. Both teams are 0-1, and both spent Monday on the road against power conference teams that were never going to let them breathe. What each team brought home from those trips is the real preview of this game.

Loyola Maryland finished 12-20 last season, scoring 75.2 points a game and allowing 77.1. Mount St. Mary's finished 15-17, scoring 68.1 and allowing 70.1, the slower and more defensive team of the two. What happened Monday matters more for Friday: both offenses spent it on the road against power conference defenses. The openers were grim on both sides: Loyola lost 80-58 at Georgetown, and Mount St. Mary's lost 97-52 at Xavier, scoring 52 points in a game where its offense never started.

Home court explains the favorite here, and little else does. Mount St. Mary's gets its home opener, in its own small building, against a team from its own state. But a home favorite still has to score, and scoring is the one thing the Mountaineers have not done yet this season.

Key Factors

Loyola's guard play, modest as it was at Georgetown, is the steadier thing in this game. Leo Ricketts led the Greyhounds with 10 points on 4-of-7 shooting, going 2-of-5 from three, and Sebastien Emenalo worked inside for 7 points and a team-high 8 rebounds.

Robbie Long III added 6 points off the bench on 2-of-3 shooting from three. Nobody on this roster took the Georgetown game over, but the Greyhounds at least found shots from the players who are supposed to take them, and that has not been true on the other bench.

Mount St. Mary's ball security is the weakness Loyola can attack. Redd Thompson Jr., the Mountaineers' starting guard, shot 1-of-14 at Xavier and turned the ball over 7 times, and a team whose lead guard gives possessions away cannot build the margin a home favorite needs. The Mountaineers scored 52 points as a team and allowed 97, and while Abdou Khadre Kebe scored 13 with 6 rebounds and Wilguens Jr. Exacte added 12 with 7 rebounds, the offense has no reliable way to create a good shot when a defense sits down and guards.

The counterpoint is Loyola's own offense, which scored 58 points at Georgetown and allowed 80, so the Greyhounds are hardly a finished product arriving to expose anyone. Emenalo shot 3-of-13 in the opener, and if Loyola's frontcourt shoots like that again, a 5.5-point underdog on the road in a loud small gym can get buried by one bad stretch.

Mount St. Mary's also defended its way to 15 wins last season in a building it knows well. The bet is that in a game where neither team scores easily, the side getting points with the steadier lead guard is the side that survives the ugly stretches.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.