Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - UFC Fight Night

A replacement pairing neither man prepared for: a 27-year-old who has finished eight of his nine wins, against a 35-year-old grappler who has been stopped by strikes in his last two fights.

The Matchup

This fight was not supposed to happen. Both men lost their original opponents in late October and were matched with each other, so neither camp built a plan for the man across the cage. What Mantas Kondratavičius brings to that scramble is momentum. He is 27 and 9-1, with eight of his nine wins by finish.

He knocked out Đani Barbir in 66 seconds on the Contender Series last September, then won his UFC debut in London in March, outlanding Antonio Trocoli 75 to 17 in significant strikes across a three-round decision, the first decision win of his career. His only professional loss came by submission in 2023.

Andre Petroski brings the deeper record and the worse recent tape. He is 35, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has been in the UFC since 2021, and his best wins, over Rodolfo Vieira last year among them, were built on takedowns and top control.

The last three fights have gone the other way: a decision loss to Edmen Shahbazyan, then knockouts by Cameron Rowston in the first round and Cody Brundage in the second, this May. A grappler whose chin has started failing him is a fighter whose margin for error has disappeared, because every entry now carries the risk that ended his last two fights.

Key Factors

Petroski's route is the one thing Kondratavičius has not been tested against. The Lithuanian's defensive grappling numbers come from one UFC fight against a man who left the promotion winless, and Petroski has spent five years dragging better athletes than Trocoli to the mat. If Petroski completes the first takedown and settles on top, the favorite's striking volume never gets started, and the replacement nature of the fight cuts in Petroski's favor: his game needs no specific preparation, only a body in front of him.

The counter is time. Petroski is 35, on a three-fight skid, and was stopped by strikes in May and again in September of last year. Kondratavičius is younger, longer, and hits hard enough to have finished six men by knockout, and he does not need the takedown threat to find Petroski, because Petroski has to come to him. Every minute standing is a minute the veteran's recent durability gets examined by the heaviest hands he has faced since the knockouts began.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.