Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

A rematch of last year's marathon meeting brings the day's highest total to Rock Hill. Winthrop and Queens both scored in the mid-80s per game last season, but only one of them defended, and that difference is the whole game.

The Matchup

Queens is a 1.5-point favorite over Winthrop at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center in South Carolina, with a total of 165.5, the highest on the marathon card, and the Royals at -130 on the moneyline. It is a neutral floor and a season opener for both teams, tipping at 8 a.m. Central on YouTube, and a rematch of last year's Field of 68 marathon meeting between the same two teams.

Neither side has played a game that counts, so last season is the starting point. Queens finished 21-14, scoring 84.5 points per game and allowing 83.5. Winthrop finished 23-11, scoring 83.6 and allowing 75.5. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Winthrop's October backed up the scoring. The Eagles won their exhibition at Georgia Southern 106-97, getting 22 points from forward Keshawn Fisher and 19 each from guard Spence Sims and sophomore Seifeldin Hendawy.

Sims is the transfer from Gardner-Webb who was the Big South's freshman of the year last season, when he scored 29 points against Winthrop itself, making 7 of 12 threes. Queens has the best returning scorer in the game, guard Nasir Mann, who averaged 13.3 points and 5.7 rebounds last season and won the ASUN tournament MVP award, so the Royals will not lack for a closer.

Both schools are local to this building, Winthrop in Rock Hill itself and Queens just up the road in Charlotte, so the neutral tag is generous. The setting will not decide this one. The defensive end will.

Key Factors

The difference is at the defensive end, and it is not small. Winthrop allowed 75.5 points per game last season. Queens allowed 83.5. In a game where both teams will score, the cover usually belongs to the team that can string together three stops, and that team is Winthrop.

The total shapes the spread too. With 165.5 points expected, variance runs high, and a short favorite in a shootout needs its defense at the end, when the game slows and every possession is a half-court possession. Winthrop's balance gives the Eagles a late-game answer Queens does not obviously have.

The honest counterpoint is Mann and the Royals' ceiling. Queens scored 84.5 points a game last season with Mann as the engine, and if he gets comfortable early, Queens can turn this into the exact track meet the total promises, where Winthrop's defense never gets set.

Winthrop is also replacing its top scorer from last season, and Hendawy's 19 points in the exhibition came against Georgia Southern, not against a contender from the Atlantic Sun. If the Eagles' new guards struggle with Queens' pace, the Royals win their local game. A near pick'em between a team that defends and a team that does not still points one way.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.