Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

UMass Lowell is 2-0 with a 64-point home win and a road win at Merrimack, and Jayden Harris has 39 points in two games. Marist split its two home games and now makes its first road trip against the strongest rebounder it has seen.

The Matchup

Marist visits UMass Lowell on Sunday afternoon in Lowell, on ESPN+, with UMass Lowell a 1.5-point favorite, a total of 146.5, and the River Hawks priced at -125 on the moneyline. UMass Lowell is 2-0, and its two wins could hardly look different: a 121-57 rout of Rivier at home, then a 71-61 win at Merrimack on Friday in a game that stayed tight into the second half. Jayden Harris has 39 points and 17 rebounds across the two games, including 26 points and 11 rebounds at Merrimack, and Victor Okojie has added 29 points.

Marist is 1-1, and both of its games were at home: a 69-62 loss to Dartmouth, then an 88-80 win over UMBC. Jadin Collins-Roberts leads the Red Foxes with 29 points across the two games, and Dywane Chess has 28, with 20 of them coming against UMBC. Last season, across the full season, Marist finished 19-12, scoring 69.7 points a game and allowing 63.8, while UMass Lowell finished 15-18, scoring 74.9 and allowing 76.3. Those are last season's numbers, and this season's first week has flipped the defensive story: Lowell has allowed 57 and 61, while Marist has given up 69 and 80 and now plays its first road game.

Key Factors

Harris is the matchup problem, because Marist's frontcourt has not yet dealt with a forward who scores and rebounds at his rate: he put 26 points and 11 rebounds on Merrimack, a Division I opponent, in 33 minutes. Lowell's second chances and home floor are worth real possessions in a game lined this tight, and the River Hawks have defended at a level neither of their first two opponents could stretch, allowing 59 points a game. The total of 146.5 sits between the two profiles: Lowell's games have finished at 178 and 132 points, Marist's at 131 and 168, so the pace will be negotiated possession by possession.

The counterpoint is Marist's balance and the defense it played a year ago. Collins-Roberts and Chess give the Red Foxes two creators, UMBC needed 80 points just to stay close in a loss, and Marist allowed only 63.8 points a game last season. If Marist turns this into a half-court game and Harris sits with foul trouble, the road team is live. The bet is that Lowell's rebounding and the best early scoring form in this matchup tilt a one-possession line at home.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.