Texas State vs Boise State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Boise State, No. 20 in the AP Top 25, defends Albertsons Stadium with a 6-1 record, and Texas State arrives with a rushing offense that matches Boise State yard for yard. Two of the best ground games in this matchup rarely produce a comfortable favorite, and this one may not either.
The Matchup
Texas State can run the ball well enough to keep this game close on the blue turf. Texas State averages 272.0 rushing yards per game at 5.8 yards per carry, numbers that sit right beside Boise State's 237.9 rushing yards at 5.6 per carry, and Torrance Burgess Jr. has run for 889 yards this season.
A visiting offense that converts 53.9 percent of its third downs and scores 37.1 points per game does not have to steal possessions; Texas State earns them by staying ahead of the chains and keeping Dylan Riley on the sideline. Riley is Boise State's engine, with 963 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, and Riley ran for 128 yards at 9.8 yards per carry with 2 touchdowns in the 31-10 win at Washington State.
Texas State allows 30.0 points per game, so Riley will get his yards. The tension is volume. Brad Jackson has thrown 14 touchdowns for Texas State and Chris Dawn Jr. caught 7 passes in the win over Utah State, giving Texas State just enough passing balance to stop Boise State from loading the box against Burgess. When both teams run this well, possessions shrink, and a double-digit spread gets harder to build.
Key Factors
Boise State's defense and ball security are the strongest arguments against Texas State. Boise State allows 20.6 points per game, nearly 10 fewer than Texas State's 30.0, and Boise State has given the ball away only 3 times all season with zero interceptions thrown by its quarterbacks. Maddux Madsen has thrown 14 touchdowns and played a clean game at Washington State, 149 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, while Rasean Jones caught 5 passes for 69 yards in that win.
If Boise State's defense forces Texas State into long fields and Madsen keeps avoiding mistakes, Boise State's superior defense eventually stretches the margin. Texas State's counter is that its offense was quiet through the air last week and still won: Jackson threw for only 167 yards at 4.5 yards per attempt against Utah State, yet Texas State won 20-17 on the ground.
That floor matters at Boise, where Texas State does not need a passing explosion to stay competitive, just the steady Burgess-led drives that produced 66 points against Colorado State two games ago. Both teams had 6 days of rest, so the game settles where the rushing battle settles, and Texas State's version is every bit as productive as the home team's.
Boise State is the better defensive team and should win at home, but Texas State's ground game shortens the game too effectively for this margin. Our projection is Boise State 35, Texas State 29. Take Texas State +11.5 at -110.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 10:00 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | The CW |
| VENUE | Albertsons Stadium, Boise |
| SPREAD | Boise State -11.5 |
| TOTAL | 63.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Boise State -470 |
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